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Section II <br />33 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — This section is reviewed and <br />recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br />Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br />2. Definition — The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future <br />years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, <br />Middle, and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals <br />at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known <br />as 'models'. <br />3. Standard for: <br />Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br />Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year <br />history /cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and <br />Tischler Linear methods. Attachment ILB.1 includes a description of each model. <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br />Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model <br />is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity <br />shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond <br />proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment ILB.1 includes a <br />description of each model. Attachment ILB.3 shows the performance of the models <br />for the 2014 -15 school year from the prior year projection. <br />5. Recommendation: <br />More than ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy <br />of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while <br />others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by <br />the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all <br />areas of the county, proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system <br />until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each <br />year, becoming part of the historical projection base. This is especially pertinent in <br />the Orange County School District which serves students living within the Orange <br />County portion of the City of Mebane which have had little historic enrollment <br />19 <br />