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3 <br />7. Orange County Schools Systems — Capital Investment Plan (CIP) Needs Analysis <br />CHCCS <br />Projected needs: <br />New Elementary #12 2023 -2024 (projected capacity for 2 students; 105.0% LOS)* <br />New Middle School #5 2023 -2024 (projected overage of 17 students; 107.6% LOS) <br />High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years <br />* Due to the rounding off of level of service numbers, student projections are showing a <br />need for Elementary School #12 in 2023 -2024 with projected remaining capacity for 2 <br />students. However, in 2024 -2025 the projections show an overage of 65 students. <br />OCS <br />Projected needs: <br />New Elementary # 8 Projections show no needs in the next 10 years <br />Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years <br />High School 2022 -2023 (projected overage of 4 students; 110.2% LOS)* <br />*Projections show the adopted level of service standard being surpassed in 2022 -2023 <br />with an overage of 4 students. However, immediately following the 2022 -2023 school <br />year, the projections show that the level of service may decrease below the adopted level <br />of service standard with remaining capacity for 31 students in 2023 -2024 and 84 students <br />in 2024 -2025. <br />The SAPFOTAC report notes that there are a significant number of approved, but <br />undeveloped lots within the portion of the City of Mebane that lies within Orange County. <br />However, new construction activity that had slowed in recent years due to the economic <br />downturn has now increased. Because the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO at <br />this time, CAPS are not required by the local government to be issued prior to <br />development approvals. However, once students generated from Mebane development <br />actually enter the school system, faster enrollment increases would affect projections and <br />may identify CIP needs within 10 years, unless enrollment is balanced by slower growth <br />in other areas of the district. <br />8. Student Generation Rates and New Study <br />At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, committee members discussed the increased <br />number of students generated in both school districts from new development, particularly <br />multifamily housing. At that time, the SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the <br />adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts different types of housing may have <br />on student membership rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with <br />TischlerBise to study student generation rates in newer housing (defined as units <br />constructed in the most recent 10 -year period) and also disaggregated by the number of <br />bedrooms contained in each unit. The process outlined in the SAPFO MOU to update <br />student generation rates as they pertain to the SAPFO process has been followed. <br />Previous numbers used for SAPFO and CAPS purposes were from the 2007 Impact Fee <br />Study which developed student generation rates based on the entire housing stock in <br />each school district. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange <br />County Schools and Chapel Hill- Canrboro School District Report are based on an <br />analysis of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. <br />