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10 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2014 -15 School Year — Orange County Schools <br />(The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2014 -2015 in that given year. The second column <br />for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An "L" indicates the projection <br />was low compared to the actual, whereas an "H" indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year Projection Made for 2014 -15 Membership <br />2010 -11 <br />Actual 2014 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2014 -15 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2009 -2010 <br />2010 -2011 <br />2011 -2012 <br />2012 -2013 <br />2013 -2014 <br />1.44% <br />Membership <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />1.30% <br />0.55% <br />Elementary <br />3259 <br />3408 <br />H149 <br />3519 <br />H260 <br />3546 <br />H287 <br />3479 <br />H220 <br />3472 <br />H213 <br />Middle <br />1762 <br />1827 <br />H65 <br />1842 <br />H80 <br />1815 <br />H53 <br />1772 <br />1410 <br />1789 <br />H27 <br />High <br />2502 <br />2400 <br />L102 <br />2349 <br />L153 <br />2347 <br />L155 <br />2366 <br />L136 <br />2406 <br />L96 <br />D. Student Membership Growth Rate .................................... (Change) .............. Pg. 39 <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate <br />over Next 10 Years <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year <br />Projection <br />Made: <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2014 -15 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2014 -15 <br />Elementary <br />1.44% <br />1.59% <br />1.18% <br />1.44% <br />1.11% <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />1.30% <br />0.55% <br />Middle <br />1.67% <br />1.94% <br />1.59% <br />1.58% <br />1.15% <br />1.84% <br />2.01% <br />1.64% <br />1.42% <br />0.09% <br />High <br />1.57% <br />1.73% <br />1.60% <br />1.27% <br />1.22% <br />1 1.59% <br />1.61% <br />1.43% <br />1.35% <br />0.39% <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate .................................. (Change) .............. Pg. 42 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 95.1 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br />but remain positive (average —1.1% per year compared to 1.7% over the past 10 <br />years). A new charter school, The Expedition School, opened in Hillsborough this <br />year and accepts students from all over. Part of the slowing in growth rate could be <br />due to students transferring to the new charter school. <br />C. Chapel Hill /Carrboro Elementary School 412 will be needed in 2023 -24. This is three <br />years later than last year's projections. <br />Middle School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 97.2 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the <br />next 10 years than it has in the previous 10 years (average —1.2% compared to an average <br />of 0.91% over the past 10 years). <br />C. Capacity has increased by 104 students due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School <br />addition. Projections show that Chapel Hill /Carrboro Middle School 45 is projected to be <br />needed in 2023 -24. This is three years later than last year's projections <br />ii <br />