Agenda - 01-10-1994 - Laserfiche WebLink

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21 --- ~ 60o 900 �e 500 s� Boo - -CL u 100 l = 400 too 1,200 " 300 '•= = 500 41 200 -410 400 800 8 100 300 400 650 1,050 1,450 1,850 2,250 1,100 2,300 3.500 4,700 5,900 200 240 300 400 500 600 Rennue Capacity(S per Capital Density(People per 34aere Mile] Intargenrmental Transfers(S per Capital For 59 dtis wW ir'Oietha in Vin Ok with popL0160 detniea or mote tAn 100 peoo per S Mtn mile. s«ese:uu. or state government increases expenditure levels by Notes i 4:TECHNIM RESUUM WS THREE XALYSES OF , $1.37.An increase in density of 500 people per i In the last 15 EAPACITY AND DWENDHURB square mile translates into a$49.50 increase in per- years,growing capita expenditure levels.Apparently,any econo- communities t.Dependent Variable Revenue Capacity per Cape mies associated with higher densities on the service have become in- VarWb 8 Codficisid T statistic supply side are more than offset by higher service creasingly con- population .718 2.343 demands associated with the higher densities. funned about the Jbs per Capita 4.741 4.088 Less strop effects on expenditures are exerted end capital funding R'-.24 fadli- by the proportion of the population that is dependent ties—.suck as Z.DepeedW VwmM t:Cheap M Revenue Capacity per Cam .. (under age 16 or over age 65)and by poverty rates, off-site roads Vatieble 8 CedIWW Tstatistic A two percentage point increase in dependency in- and sewage treat- Charge in Jobs per Capft .436 2344 creases per-capita expenditures by$28,while a simi- ment facilities— Charge in Coristnic ion w Capita .005 4.336 lar increase in poverty increases expenditures by$24. associated with population QVMM Rate .464 4.870 Population size was included in the analysis to new develop- R2=.48 whether or not the effects of economies of meat To provide 3 DepeadaR VarhMe:Ispsa aura per Capita kcales were evident.The results indicate a positive Support for the relationship between population size and expendi- collection of im- Variable B Coemdw T Statift pact fees at the Revenue Cape*per Capita 0.869 9.616 ture levels.They do not reflect either income or front end of the pope 0.417 2.435 land price effects because these are controlled for in development Density •099 7.046 the revenue capacity variable or density effects.The project,they Proportion under 16 years 14.729 2.536 likely explanation for the positive relationship is the have undertaken Proportion over 65 years 14.170 3.170 tendency to add services as a community increases to estimate the kftVWVvamrner- Trardlen; 1.368 6.869 in size,and scale economies make more marginal infrastructure Poverty Rabe IL598 2.968 services more affordable.Larger communities tend costs of new de- R =.78 to offer a broader range of services.Overall,the velopment How- variation in population size exerts a smaller effect ever,most such SOW=UM studies make no than the other factors.An increase in population of p p effort to assess the effects of net costs and revenues over 10,000 is associated with only a$4.17 increase in ex- time.Over time,net revenues from the new development penditure levels. may easily cover the annualized capital costs of off-site in- The bottom line of I LI's analysis of the effects frastructure. of growth on fiscal capacity and expenditure levels 2 There is no doubt about the fiscal impact of a recession, is that both population growth and economic Oobs) especially when property values de-cline in the process: growth increase revenue-generating capacity,and revenues recede quickly while costs do not,producing large revenue capacity is the primary determinant of local deficits and cutbacks in services even though needs are government expenditure levels.Enhanced revenue not declining. capacity makes it possible to increase expenditures 3 See Robert W.Burcheil and David Listokin,Fiscal impact without raising the tax rates or the relative tax bur- Prwedurrs--Stare of the Arc(New Brunswick,New Jersey: dens on the residents.Other factors such as increases Center for Urban Polity r-"'k ensity and size of population, in the proportion Research,Rutgers-the State University, 1992). I. ependent population,and in federal and state transfers tend to raise per-capita expenditure levels to a lesser degree,independent of the effects of in- J.Thomas BIack it ULI's staff vice president for"search creases in per-capita revenue capacity.•: and Rita Curtis n an amciate in LWs rcararrb department. -= -- - 7anuary 1993 • Urban Land 21