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Craig Benedict said the projections information presented tonight is a compilation of <br /> input from all of the local governments during the Metropolitan Planning Organization process <br /> to develop the long range transportation plan. He said these plans were loaded into a model <br /> called "Imagine 2040." He said the numbers in the packet were designed to show the <br /> conditions in 2010. <br /> He said the information packet shows some striking numbers that need to be realized. <br /> He said if these trends can be accommodated with current land use plans, then we move <br /> forward; if these cannot be accommodated with current land use plans, then local <br /> governments will need to make some adjustments. <br /> Craig Benedict reviewed several maps and charts regarding population, dwelling, and <br /> employment in the towns and County. He said the population growth in unincorporated <br /> Orange County is projected to be 28,000 by 2040. He said the rural buffer projection looks at <br /> available land and makes assumptions about single family and multi-family building and <br /> sprawl. He said the population increase in the rural buffer is estimated to be 14,000. He <br /> reviewed the maps and zoning. <br /> He reviewed the map of the rural buffer uses and the following slide of Rural Buffer <br /> statistics: <br /> RURAL BUFFER SUMMARY STATISTICS <br /> Established; 1987 per JPA <br /> Total Area 36,958 acres <br /> Zoning Rural Buffer (RB) <br /> RB 1 DU / 5 AC* (University Lake) 15,400 acres <br /> RB 1 DU /2 AC (Jordan Lake) 21,558 acres <br /> Use Value Area (Farm & Forest) <br /> 1990 — 11,800 acres± <br /> 2002 — 10,970 acres <br /> 2014 — 10,206 acres <br /> Population (Rural Buffer approx.) <br /> 2010 Units —4,712 <br /> Population — 11,106 <br /> (DCHC MPO MTP) 2040 Units — 10,183 Increase 116% <br /> Population —25,161 Increase 127% <br /> Craig Benedict said it is difficult to put 5,000 projected new units in the rural buffer, <br /> even if you converted the farm land. He said the total acres of farm land decreased in 2012, <br /> but total farms increased. He said this was due to a decrease in farm sizes. He said the direct <br /> sale of food from farms to consumers has gone up due to County and town policies. <br /> He said there have been discussions for ten years about agricultural support <br /> enterprises. He said there is high demand for new housing in Orange County, and the models <br /> show a high degree of activity wanting to occur in the rural buffer, and agricultural support <br /> enterprises could help stem the tide of conversion. <br /> Craig Benedict said staff is in the process of developing the 2045 plan, and there is an <br /> initiative that asks whether 65,000 people can really come to Orange County, and if so, what <br /> housing will be used. He said staff is looking for input on how to develop this plan to make <br /> sure it is achievable and sustainable. <br />