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52 <br />in the timing of available tax increment and we plan on using the Debt Management Fund to <br />backstop debt service on the Ephesus Fordham public improvements portion of the debt. Any <br />amounts used would be restored to the Debt Fund once the tax increment surpasses what is <br />needed for debt service. One of the possible consequences of using the debt fund for this <br />purpose is the delay of planned capital expenditures such as the Public Safety Facility and the <br />Transfer Station. <br />Development Scenarios <br />Based on our understanding of the market and assuming completion of public infrastructure <br />improvements and rezoning, we have developed what we believe is a "likely" development <br />scenario for the Ephesus Fordham Renewal Project. We believe that these development <br />assumptions represent reasonable expectations that, along with other information, can help form <br />a basis for decision making regarding the Ephesus Fordham Renewal Project. The scenario is <br />broken down into three parts or phases. The first phase represents development expectations in <br />the first 4 years of the project. For this phase we have relied, in part, on representations by <br />property owners regarding plans for redevelopment. The subsequent two phases, covering years <br />5 -15 are not based on any specific development plans and reflect a "best guess" estimation. <br />Timing of the completion of development: Base on existing development plans and market <br />analysis our expectations for the timing of completion of the three phases is shown in the <br />following table. The cash flow analysis (Attachment 1) is based on this assumed completion <br />progress of the expected development. <br />Expected <br />Development <br />Completion <br />Percentages <br />Phase 1- Year <br />Completion % <br />FY2016 <br />FY2017 <br />FY2018 <br />25% <br />50% <br />100% <br />Phase 2 - Year <br />FY2021 <br />FY2022 <br />FY2023 <br />FY2024 <br />Completion % <br />25% <br />50% <br />75% <br />100% <br />Phase 3 - Year <br />FY2027 <br />FY2028 <br />FY2029 <br />FY2030 <br />Completion % <br />25% <br />50% <br />75% <br />100% <br />The expected development scenario shown below takes the area to 68% of maximum build out in <br />15 years. The square footage values used to determine expected project values are slightly lower <br />that that the existing market. These lower values were used in order to provide a conservative <br />scenario. <br />