Agenda - 11-19-2014 - 5a - Laserfiche WebLink

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ORANGE COUNTY ASSEMBLY OF GOVERNMENTS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: November 19, 2014 Action Agenda Item No. 5 -a SUBJECT: Rural Buffer and Countywide Population Projections DEPARTMENT: Planning PUBLIC HEARING: (Y /N) No ATTACHMENT(S): 1. JPA Land Use Map 2. Courtesy Review Map 3.a. Imagine 2040 Results (Population & Dwelling Units) Map 3.b. Imagine 2040 Results (Employment) Map 4. Rural Buffer Summary Statistics 5. Orange County 2010 Density Map 6. 2014 Use Value Program Map INFORMATION CONTACT: Craig Benedict, Planning Director, 919- 245 -2592 1 PURPOSE: To review some statistics and conditions of the Rural Buffer as it relates to population projections for the county and rural buffer. BACKGROUND: The Rural Buffer (RB) is a zoning area within the Chapel Hill / Carrboro / Orange County Joint Planning Area (JPA) that was formulated in 1987. This 36,958 acre area is an area that is under the jurisdiction of Orange County planning with JPA agreement land uses that are primarily rural and lower density residential. The JPA RB area is outside of the urban services boundary where public water and sewer would not be provided (pursuant to the county -wide agreement known as the Water and Sewer Management and Planning Boundary Agreement (WASMPBA)) and where annexation would not occur. Large tracts of land within this area are under the control of Duke Forest and also within the use value program (i.e. Farms and Forestry). Farmland has diminished countywide and this trend is reflected in the Rural Buffer. The attached Summary Statistics (Attachment 4) note some of the changes in demographics over the last twenty years, as well as, what population modeling (Community Viz exercise by the Durham - Chapel Hill- Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan) has forecast for the area. Although pressures for residential development at lower densities have been relatively modest in the area, the decreasing available supply of land in the nearby cities are projected to prompt a shift (where possible) to the Rural Buffer. County Planning Staff will explain some expected trends. FINANCIAL IMPACT: No financial impact related to the receipt of this report. RECOMMENDATION(S): The County Manager recommends the Boards receive the report and provide comments as appropriate.