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2 <br />January 30. Telephone survey work will begin on February 6, and Dr. Hertzog will make a <br />presentation of the findings at the Board's February 19 meeting. <br />The polling approach to be used by Hertzog Research and its field partner, FGI Research, will <br />allow for adjustments to ensure that adequate representation of demographic subgroups will <br />appear in the final data. The Orange County voter registration database will be cross- <br />referenced against telephone company landline records to provide phone numbers at which <br />voters can be contacted. There are severe federal fines applicable to parties who make <br />unsolicited phone calls to cell numbers through the use of predictive dialing. As cellular <br />telephone numbers are by their nature unlisted, any registered voter who uses only cell phone <br />communications (statistically, this tends to be about 7 percent of a given population) will not be <br />contacted. <br />FINANCIAL IMPACT: The BOCC-approved 2007-08 budget does not include funding <br />specifically earmarked for the voter survey. The BOCC approved $17,500 in its contingency <br />fund in the original 2007-08 budget and has not appropriated any of that sum to date. <br />The County has not been a frequent user of commissioned polling data. However, as a point of <br />reference, the quotation of $9,985 for Hertzog Research's 5 minute survey of approximately 400 <br />registered, likely voters is similar to the $9,850 cost that Orange County paid for polling work in <br />January 1992 in preparation for what became the November 1992 school bond referendum. <br />Preliminary estimates provided by the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners <br />suggest that based on historical patterns, Orange County could expect additional annual sales <br />tax revenue of roughly $3.0 million, or annual proceeds of approximately $4.0 million from a .4 <br />percent land transfer tax, if approved by voters and implemented by the Board of <br />Commissioners. <br />RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board: <br />1. approve the agreement with Hertzog Research in the amount of $9,985; <br />2. authorize the Manager to execute the agreement; and <br />3. direct staff to prepare a budget amendment that will appropriate funds from the <br />Commissioners' contingency account to cover the cost of the agreement.