Agenda - 10-07-2014-13 (5) - Laserfiche WebLink

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' Although the various population forecasts for Orange County are relatively comparable, adding some validity, this does not necessarily substantiate the accuracy of the projections. In this case, release of future Census data and time will tell. However, what is especially difficult for County Planning Staff to accept is that all of the projections are "straight - line ", meaning no account for changing growth rates over time. One could posture that growth in Orange County is constrained by growth policies and urban service boundaries and municipalities may experience "ceiling" effects within their current boundaries, albeit with some redevelopment at greater densities. Earlier this year, Orange County Planning Staff met with Dr. Paul Voss, Research Professor at the UNC Carolina Population Center to discuss Orange County population forecasts and as a result, Dr. Voss prepared projections for the County's Planning Department. Dr. Voss took an average from the results of 10 separate projections, with differing methodologies, and arrived at a 2030 and 2040 population of 183,425 and 214,204, respectively. Staff notes that these projections are higher than those included in the 2040 MTP. His methods are based on migration models and not based on existing or future municipal and County growth policies. Although the County's Comprehensive Plan County Profile Element includes a section on emalovment it does not include emalovment forecasts. Conclusions • There are a variety of data sources for population projections and those completed by Orange County Planning staff fit well within the range of possibilities when compared to other sources. • Population estimates and forecasts are continuously revisited and updated as decennial U.S. Census data is made available and /or plans such as the MTP reach the next update cycle. • All associated staff now has a better understanding of the model used by the MPO and how it reacts to inputs. Previous population growth in the Rural Buffer produced by the model was created because the model would not allow Chapel Hill to accept residential development "on the ground" even though the population guide total reflected growth in Chapel Hill's population. As mentioned previously, during the 2040 MTP process, the MPO staff and the process itself were too far along to really engage in discussion and consider if any changes were necessary to address Orange County's concerns or questions. How the model populates or places residential development in rural Orange County versus Chapel Hill will be a staff focus during the 2045 MTP process. Triangle J Council of Governments staff has also expressed intent to help build in more time for a "big picture view" and cross agency staff discussion rather than independent review and input. • The DCHC MPO will be working on the population and employment guide totals for the 2045 MTP in late fall 2014 through early 2015. County Planning staff will be participating in the development process and will keep the BOCC apprised. The MPO Board will need to approve guide totals and the BOCC will be asked to review. • The MPO staff ensures that there will be adequate review of the guide totals and has agreed to provide better context (e.g., x employment = y square feet of work space). County Planning staff will also request that employment within municipalities be examined for both the supply and demand for land. How population may be constrained within the model above and beyond that which could be accommodated by existing zoning will be a subject of discussion and debate. Links 2040 DCHC MPO MTP: http : / /www.dchcmpo.org /index.php ?option =com content &task = view &id= 97 &ltemid =35