Agenda - 10-07-2014-13 (5) - Laserfiche WebLink

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Total 284,063 459,026 1.6% At the time the BOCC and Planning staff had questions, the MPO staff and MTP process were too far along to really engage in discussion and consider if any changes might be necessary to address Orange County's concerns or questions. Various Planning Initiatives In addition to the MTP process, there are other various planning initiatives or projects that include population projections for or within Orange County. At the local level, the Towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough each have Comprehensive Plans that include or reference population projections for their respective jurisdictions. Although it would be helpful for the collective planning within Orange County if all of the local government stakeholders agreed on a common set of population projections for the County and its municipalities, this has not been done and likely not feasible without agreement to pursue from the respective elected boards and subsequent direction to the staffs. However, the 2045 MTP development process is just beginning, includes representation from each local government, and provides a venue and opportunity to discuss and update Orange County's population every 4- years. Water supply planning is another example of a regional planning activity involving Orange County and population projections. The Triangle J Council of Governments led the development of the Triangle Regional Water Supply Plan and is assisting local governments, including Orange County, through the application process with the NC Division of Water Resources for Jordan Lake water supply storage allocations. In this case, participating governments and water service providers submitted their own population projections for their respective service areas, which needed to be defensible but did not need to prescribe to a common methodology. Relationship to Orange County 2030 Comprehensive Plan The County's Comprehensive Plan includes a County Profile (data) Element that uses decennial U.S. Census data, historical growth rates, and linear and exponential population projection methodologies to arrive at population forecasts. The original (2008) forecasts have been updated with the benefit of the 2010 Census and are available online: http: / /www.co. orange. nc.us /planning /Demographics.asp For brief comparison: 2030 Population Forecast 2040 MTP 176,384 Orange County Comp Plan (linear) 173,752 Orange County Comp Plan 192,243 (exponential) Woods and Poole 176,427 NC Office of State Budget & Management 168,342 2040 Population Forecast 197,675 193,728 230,770 245,380 N/A (175,073 for year 2034) 2