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INFORMATION ITEM <br />Memorandum <br />Date: September 10, 2014 <br />To: Board of County Commissioners <br />Bonnie B. Hammersley, County Manager <br />From: Craig Benedict, Planning Director <br />Tom Altieri, Comprehensive Planning Supervisor <br />Re: Population Projections Used for Various Planning Initiatives <br />At a Board of County Commissioners meeting earlier this year, Chair Jacobs offered that there <br />had been some differences in outlook on the projected population for Orange County when <br />looking at the County's projections versus other entities' projections. A request was made for <br />the Board to receive information on the various population projections used for various planning <br />initiatives in relation to the County's Comprehensive Plan. <br />Background <br />Population and employment estimates were questioned by Orange County Planning Staff during <br />development of the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), formerly known as the Long <br />Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), for the Durham - Chapel Hill - Carrboro Metropolitan Planning <br />Organization (DCHC MPO). These estimates, referred to as "guide totals" in the MTP, were <br />used in a MPO land use model to create development scenarios (i.e. maps) each showing <br />geographic distribution of population growth and employment in the County. Employment guide <br />totals from Woods and Poole were not evaluated substantially. Planning staff and the BOCC <br />had questions regarding the distribution of residential development in the County, particularly <br />within the rural buffer, and also the 49,000 jobs that had been projected in Orange County over <br />the 30 -year period (See attached). Of the 49,000 jobs, 29,000 were to locate in Chapel Hill, and <br />8,300 of those were attributed to UNC growth that is "asserted" on main campus and Carolina <br />North. The remaining 20,000 jobs over 30 years (670 jobs per year) were distributed among <br />Carrboro, Hillsborough, Mebane, the part of Durham City in Orange County, and unincorporated <br />OC (including the economic development zones). An additional 20,000 jobs may mean <br />approximately 260,000 SF of new construction or approximately one 25,000 SF Duke medical <br />clinic every 3 -years for the next 30- years. <br />Employment included in 2040 MTP: <br />Jurisdiction T20110 Employment 2040 Employment Annual Rate <br />Estimate Forecast <br />Durham <br />County <br />194,770 <br />306,637 1.5% <br />Orange <br />County <br />70,491 <br />119,787 1.8% <br />Chatham <br />County <br />10,011 <br />19,509 2.2% <br />Person County <br />8,791 <br />13,093 1.3% <br />