Agenda - 03-30-1995 - II - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

Update,* School Enrollment Projecfions by Charles D. Liner DURING THE NEXT DECADE statewide public school en- From 1993-94 to 1998-99, 97 of the 119 school rollment in North Carolina will continue the upward units (82 percent) will experience some increase in to- trend begun in 1990-91, but the rate of growth in en- tal enrollment (see Table 1). However, only 25 units rollment will decline over the decade. About 45 per- can expect increases of 10 percent or more, and only 3 cent of North Carolina's school units can expect units can expect increases of 20 percent or more. Total enrollment growth of 10 percent or more over the next enrollment of 22 units will decline over this period, ten years, while the remainder can expect modest in- but only 5 of those units will experience declines of 10 creases or decreases. percent or more. After falling 10 percent between 1976-77 and 1989-90, statewide total enrollment began increasing Table 1 in 1990-91 and now is 4 percent above the level of Percentage Change in Actual and Projected 1989-90. According to projections of average daily Average Daily Membership (ADM) in membership (ADM) made by the Department of Public I IS North Carolina School Units Instruction, this upward trend will continue through the ACTUAL PROJECTED next decade.' By school year 2003--04, statewide total Number of Number of School Units whose ADM is enrollment will be 14 percent higher than in 1993-94. School Units Projected to Change,by Grade Level However, the rate of growth in total enrollment will be whose ADM decreasing steadily during the decade. For example, to- Amountof Changed from 1993-94 to 1998-99 1993-94 to 2003-4 tal enrollment will increase by 2 percent in 1994-95, ChangeADM(%) 191989-90) to 93-94 K-6 7-9 10-12 K-12 K-6 7-9 10-12 K-12 but by only 0.6 percent in 2003-04. Figure 1,page 17, — — shows expected trends in enrollment by grade level. 300/a or more 0 0 1 4 0 1 17 15 4 20%to 30% 2 3 6 6 3 5 22 16 10 Statewide elementary school enrollment, which 10%to 20% 6 37 21 21 22 27 26 22 39 has been increasing substantially in recent years, will 5%to 10% 26 29 24 19 39 31 20 7 17 grow slowly during the next few years and then will 0%to 5% 36 36 21 27 33 26 15 24 25 decrease. Enrollment in grades K through 3 will peak 0%to-5% 40 10 17 25 17 20 8 12 15 in 1998-99, while enrollment in grades 4 through 6 -5%to-10% 9 4 18 10 5 4 6 9 5 will peak in 2002-03. In the meantime, enrollment in -10%to-20% 0 0 10 7 0 5 5 10 4-20%or more o 0 1 0 0 0 o a o grades 7 through 12 will continue to grow substan- tially. By school year 2003-04, enrollment in grades 7 Summary of Change through 9 will be 21 percent higher than in 1993-94, Units with and enrollment in grades 10 through 12 will be almost Change in ADM 18 percent higher than in 1993-94. Increase (number of units) 70 . 105 73 77 97 90 100 84 95 (percentage) 59 88 61 65 82 76 84 71 80 Decrease (number of units) 49 14 46 42 22 29 19 35 24 The author is an Institute of Government faculty member who spe- (percentage) 41 12 39 35 18 24 16 29 20 cializes in public finance. 1. The projections analyzed here were made by Evan Sun of the Source:Calculated from projections made by the V.C.Department of Pub- N.C. Department of Public Instruction. lic Instruction.