Agenda - 03-30-1995 - II - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

ll"inter 1991 School Lai k Bulletin 13 Second, the escalation in needs was not limited to Figure 15 only a few counties but rather involved about two-thirds Now Counties' Reported School Needs Changed of the counties. Whereas 36 counties reported lower from 1988 to 1993, Taking into Account Spending for Capital Needs from 1989 to 1993 needs in 1993 than in 1988, when construction spending is taken into account,reported needs actually fell in only 10 counties.=' In 16 other counties the increases were 300 or more 3 modest—below 25 percent. Of the remaining 74 coun- 200-299 7 ties, all except 9 had increases above 50 percent. Thirty I50-199 to counties had increases of 100 percent or more, and of .3 loo-lag 9 those counties 21 had increases of 150 percent or more, V 11 had increases of 200 percent or more, and 4 had in- 75-99 is creases of 300 percent or more. (See Figure 15.) ` 50-74 20 Changes in reported needs per student averaged$2,891 a 25-49 9 but ranged from a decline of$4,500 per student to an 0-24 16 increase of more than $25,000 per student. Decrease to As Table 2, page 14, shows, the escalation in re- ported needs was not limited to those with growing en- rollments, or to large or high-income counties. Number of Counties How to explain escalating needs? Three factors that might be expected to explain some of the growth in reported needs are increased construction costs, enroll- ment growth, and increased needs for classrooms be- ten-year enrollment growth of 5 percent or more, and cause of the increased numbers of teachers provided by 63 units expected declines of 5 percent or more. the Basic Education Program. Statewide enrollment began to increase in 1991. Construction costs increased about 14 percent be- and in 2003 is expected to be 15.6 percent higher than tween 1988 and 1993, and therefore do not explain the 1993 enrollment. At the time of the 1993 survey, 105 large increases that occurred in most counties.22 of 129 school units expected some enrollment increase Enrollment trends cannot explain the general es- during the next ten years.21 However, only 60 units ex- calation in reported needs during the 1980s, because pected increases of 10 percent or more, and only 21 enrollment was declining then. In 1981 statewide en- units expected increases of 20 percent or more. rollment had fallen 5 percent below the peak enroll- As Table 2 shows, the escalation in needs is not ment of 1976-77, and it fell another 5 percent by limited to those counties that are expected to have large 1990. enrollment increases. Average net increases in reported In 1981 only 12 of the 144 school units expected needs were largest in the counties that had the highest increased enrollment during the next five years, and projected growth rates, but the average increases were only 1 unit expected an increase of more than 5 per- large even in counties that expected declining enroll- cent.21 At the time of the 1984 survey, only 19 of the ment. Increases in reported needs were not significantly 142 school units expected enrollment growth during correlated with projected enrollment growth during the the next ten years, and only 10 of those expected period 1988 to 1993. growth of more than 5 percent.2; In 82 school units en- The absolute increases in enrollment that were rollment was expected to decline by more than 10 per- expected in 1993 also do not seem to explain why cent. In 1988, 42 of the 140 school units expected needs escalated in so many counties. Of those 60 counties that in 1993 expected enrollment growth of 10 percent or more during the coming ten years, 10 21. in four of those counties, there seems to have been a major, counties expected fewer than 500 additional students. downward reassessment of needs. For example. reported needs in one 13 counties expected from 500 to 1,000 additional stu- county fell from S106 million to Sal million,despite spending of only 515 million from 1989 to 1993. - dent.. and 16 counties expected from 1,000 t0 x.000 22.This figure is based on the implicit price deflator for nonresiden- students. In fact, of the net increase in enrollment ex- tial,tructures. pected in .ill counties from 1993 to 2003. 10 counties 23.Charles D. Liner."Projected Enrollments of the 1980s.-School Laic Bulletin I I (July 1980): I, 10-13. — -- 24.Charles D. Liner,-Trends Affecting North Carolina School En- C tim i,:, D. Liner. "Update: School Enrollment Projections," rollment.-School Law Budlehn 15 Oan. 1984): 1. 12-20. Sch..../Lw� lialirlin 24(winter 1993): 11-13.