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Attachment 5 65
<br /> PEVISE10212 12014
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections 90)14)
<br /> Elementary
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2 2002-03 200354 2 200550 23607 2007-00 2 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2010-15 2015-16 2019-17 2017-18 2010-1e 201523 2020-21 2021.22 2022 23 2223 24
<br /> Actual 4,444 0014474 4,551 4692 004,695 4079 0 4980 5173 0085.302 5,219 5,296 5464 5543 5554
<br /> TiscNerm 5 6. 5,741 5834 5,928 8,021 6 119 6208 5301 6 394 6,408 I
<br /> 00 Planning fl 5 732 5809 5884 5 959 6 033 6.133 8.233 0362 6 492
<br /> 10 Year Growth MUM 5.781 5,893 5.978 8 003 6 143 6,205 8,267 6330 6 393
<br /> 5 Year Growth ®i 9.404 0.001 0 001 5122 0,106 0,245 3,307
<br /> 3 Year Grown) MEMMF 5,259 5,864 5,943 6,039 6,099 6160 6 222 8229 6 347
<br /> Average 5,635. 5,748 5.845 5527 6,021 6,080 9,166 3,241 6,923 6,005
<br /> A 1 Change-Inerease Memo.)f A I 5 Prolgoted 01059312201031900094p) 30 71 144 3 104 101- 133_ 129 1339 77 108 79 11 01 113 7 82 93 69 76 _ 78 82 82
<br /> Capacity• +\
<br /> Y Level or Service(LOS) 4,302 4,302 4,302 /521 4 321 4,921 4 921 45 21 5 244 -3,244 3,444 5 244 5 444 5 0 5,823 5 5,829 5,829 5,829 5 5,823 5,820 5,823
<br /> Number -
<br /> 015 I 2,over(: er1 100%LOS 142 112 � 49 (229 (226 14 2) 59 252 52 125) 52 220 299 (2]51 41941 180 0 60 192 201 337 412 494 370
<br /> Capacity-125%Level Of Service(LOS) 4,517 4 4,517_ 5.167 5 167 5 167 5 167 5 167 5 500 5 506 5 50.0 06 5 506 6 120 t 20 6 120 2.120 6,120 6.120 6120 6,120 0,120 6,120 8 120
<br /> '
<br /> Number of Students.Actual and Projected,Over(Under)105%LOS 143 34 (475) 44724 (280 (187 6 (204) (291 1210) - 37 (562 MII 372 275 193 102 30 45 121 203 2115
<br /> Actual%Level of Service /103.3% 104.0% 105.8% 953% 9547, 99.1% 1012% 105.17. 101:% 99.5% 101,0% 104.2%--33...405.7% 95.3%
<br /> 8.6, 100,356 01.7% 03.3°34 01.8% 103,8.. 07.1% 100.55 109,0.
<br /> Annual 6ledenl.Growth Hale(3) 0.66% 1.72,. 3.10% 0.06% 397% 207% 3.83% 2,46% -1.57% 1.403 3.17% 1.45% �0,�% 1.47% \2.00% 1.61% 11.41% 11.55/ 11,15% 124,.. •1.23% 1.31% 1.30%
<br /> Ver niber1S 3002Cerene ap.,Calanaeon;03MS 9392176 vrnnwy 41046925024 shod year 2000-25.1nxmm2rre eme 114panswxh seszeam.
<br /> lawrce70ry 494pwamhlxro3 with aNiewm1619zea6amPer standard, e91mn9re�'9dnw.kcrobµ a�l[-s clan dm redurea hom 3:xa to
<br /> ry school
<br /> when dis1Ad Surpasses Schools AP70 recommended 110010(Service arss r re.mm ry43 cens(men9w fay poor 0001212422 PeHanrc rmur.dmz.d..)
<br /> m It is 25po1a3110 ncle that this 1e0e1:ls the November 45,2012 dale of memberships outlined In ley the 4000ols Adequate Public 7300400 01 4/13504 II does nal n[lutle CHCCS Students attending the Hospital School.
<br /> 01 The 511361er Model provde2 for the"Linear Method'of projections for both CHCCS and 003.0ri0inal 7,620 bns used In odor years projection models included 31'Linear Extrapolation Method.for CHCCS.
<br /> m Annual growth rate calculated using actual membership for years 2000-01 through 1012-13 and average membership for years 201514 through 2022-23
<br /> e Clme sizes fm modes K3=1:23 300060ol years 20001hreugh 2007-00.In accordancew3h 2009 School Collaboration Wmh Group uhecuun,offe2ive the 200 52009 school year with Me opening o5017505 Elementary/M[21,class sizes are 121 as directed by past Stale legislative aclicn.
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections 11)
<br /> 50420)0
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001 52 200253 2003-04 liEN 2005-06 2007-08 200503 2009-10 2010-11 ��� 2014-15 2015.16 2016-17 2011-10 2010-10 2019-20 2020-21 2021-2 2022-23 202324
<br /> 4000 2,326 2,540 2698 26 2022 2097 2,108 2]22
<br /> Tlschler'0 2,906 2,954 3 002 3 050 3,098 3 146 3194 3 242 3,290 3,339
<br /> G Planning flfl 2,969 3034 3 099 3,165 3,231 3298 3366 3,433
<br /> 40 Year Grewlh 295] 2988 3013 3097 3,186 3,298 3,327 3360 3,304
<br /> 5Year er0. 29331 2.903 2.913 2 968 3.040 3,092 3.162 3193 3,225
<br /> car rowlh ®® 3,189 3254 3,287 3.310
<br /> dY G I � 0950 [918 ,OS1 3131
<br /> Ave7e40 �II�t ��.yp� 2 2 2,999 3623 3,194 3.190 3,26] 3,299 3302
<br /> AnnoaCe -•10bease Rem-aa- °Actual&Pro ee2d2mb'r , - 11111111111111M11101 11111111111 111=71111111M7 33 37 54 71 58 s 67 43
<br /> capacity-1007 Level 015e90102 2,10B 2,040 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,040 2,040 2,240 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,890 2,940 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2944 2,944 2,944 2,904 2,944
<br /> Number of sludenls.Actual and Proiene4 over 111nder1100X LOS 216 (300) (2121 1228) (250 (260 (208) (21B) (142) (132) (112) (82) (65) 16 112, 3 16 55 119 190 296 313 355 390
<br /> 1213.Level of Service 2,256 3,039 3,039 3,229 3,039 3,039 3,036 3,039 3,039 3,035 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3.150 3,150
<br /> 12,0601 of Students,Actual and Projected,OVer(Under)107%%LOS 70 (499) (431) (427) (470) (467) (447) 1417) (342) (331) (317) (200 (254 1181 225 203 188 151 02 16 39 137 141 192
<br /> 7,3591-,°Level(753413e 110,3% 89.4% 91.634 92.0. 90.1% 90.6. 91.3. 926. 95.0% 35.439 33.0,6 30.9. 90.1. 100.5.°
<br /> 1, 99.4% •OD.1% 100,6% 101,9% 104.0% 106.4% 108.3% 110.654 112.1.. 113.5%
<br /> A9flual Student Growth 9310131 9,20% 260% 3,16% 499,° 047)3 073% 1.1621. 2.86% 2.41% 0.52% 1,14% 1.16% 2,62% 2.35% 178% 0,50% 1,14% 2,13% 2,3239 1.703. 2,11% 1,3D% 1,30%
<br /> _4brsm Mahon prom.)tu244101a3atr I
<br /> Indicates when disiricl suroammes 571mI5,20.commended Level of service
<br /> B'1'Tine Im00000I000042 that Ihfs moec51h2 November 13,04124.40 olmembenhip as 001404 In by the schools Ad2goam Public 940101100 040100000,6 does nor 4001043 CHCCS 2104x05 olmndllu 100 003 51 31 600001
<br /> 10 The Annual Model p Culate t using the"linear Methodhof projections far 60th CHCCS and encl 05ginal embers02 used in 7201 years proje0'.ion models Idclvtletl the"Unea194 704ae0n Melhotl"(or CHCCS.
<br /> m AnnuCSStrole 7alculPr Projections 1" for years 2000-01 through 2012-13 antl9vomga membership f4ryean 201314IIr002 2022-23
<br /> CHCCS Student Projections 11)
<br /> High
<br /> 0000017223 .200051 200152 2 2 350 200456 2 2 607 2307-05 2 20 2 2011-12_ 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2016-16 221 417 2017-ie 2018-13 2013-20 2020-21 2021-22 202233 202334
<br /> Actual 2,815 2,963 0023162 003330 3,422 0053,514 003520 9635 0083,630 093,606 0103640 3,714 9,]96 3764
<br /> Tizclderm 3,827 3,891 3959 4,017 4000 4144 4,207 4270 4,334 4,397
<br /> 00 Planning 3,375 3,875 3.075 0.875 3075 3875 3.875 3 275 3.1375 3.078
<br /> 10 Yeat.rmyh 3,761 3,709 0,067 4,028 4065 4 127 4,186 4218 4,357 0.400
<br /> 3,772 3.731 3,059 3,960 9.900 9.000 4,017 4.025 4,131 4216
<br /> 3 Year Grow. 3,768 3,810 4912 6,024 4057 4,105 4,144 4174 4,297 4,392
<br /> •
<br /> 04010,2 3,205 3,825 3,093 3 182 4,011 4 350 4.086 4,112 4,189 4,208
<br /> p3nual CNan9e-400502¢(baurexe)in Aolual8 Projected McSnecr06ip) 140 159 460 92 52 0 118 151 (34) 34 74 0; (33) 41 20 08 30 39 36 07 n0
<br /> Capacity-130%Level of Service 3,035 3,035 3,035 3,035 3 035 3,035 3,035 3,835 3,835 3,835 3,875 3,875 3,375 3,345 3,875 3,875 3,875 3,875 3,075_ 3,875 3,875 3,875 3,375 3,875
<br /> Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS (220) (72) 127 295 387 079 485 (200) 12051 12291 12351 1161) (79) 1111) (70) 150) 10 107 136 175 211 237 324 393
<br /> 110,Level of Service 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 4,219 4219 ,263 4,263 4,263 4253 ,263 4,263 4,263 4,263 9,263 ,263 4263 4,2123 4,263 4,253
<br /> Numbex of sludenls.Actual and Protected,Over Under 110%LOS 524) 13761 on) (1) B3 176 182 (584) is 16131 016231 1549) 1467 1499)458) (437) (369) (281) 051) •(212) (177) 050) (641
<br /> Ac'.ual-%Level of Service 92.6% 97.5. 104.2, 199.7% 112.8% 115.8% 116.0% 94.0% 94.7% 99.0% 93,9% 95.87. 93.0% 97.1%
<br /> ,era r 96.2 9 0,713 100.v/ 1026/ 1035/ 1045/ 1059/ 106.
<br /> I 110 I°h
<br /> .•n%I Rude 0-twig Rate 3 5,26. 9 U 5,31 2,76'. 2.69%• 0,77%_ __327% _ A.'10%_ ,6600 - 0.94% 209% 2.21% 4.843. f0B%. 054-_ 1,78% 2,27% 0,75% OAS% 668% 055% 210% 1.65%
<br /> ideates when disiricl surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Semite
<br /> 1'x It is important t0 noto that this reflects Me November 15,2012 dale of membership as outlined in by the Schools Adequele Public FaOlities Ordinance.It does not include CHCOS students attending the Hosp.1930 L
<br /> 01 The lischle5 Model provides for the"Linear Method.of projections for both CHCCS and 009-Or1gnel projections:marl In odor years projection models included Or°linear Eair3polalicn MMhod"for CHCCS.
<br /> 2'Annual growth r21e 00102111ed using actual membership roryears 200001 throuch 2012-13 and avenge membership for years 2013-10 through 202223
<br /> The Tischler model uses 14 years of historical dale,but do to space constraints only 10 yeas ofhiolodcal data are included%the above tables. rimmed 400Hm in roe 2007 wlb600admtunalatr 492010-51 310
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