Agenda - 05-08-2014 - 6g - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

Section II C. Student Projections Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section ILB The 5 model average discussed in Section ILB (Student Projection Methodology) (Student Projection Methodology) See Attachment ILC.4 See Attachment ILC.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued growth in both systems. Average projected growth rates in the next 10 years for both school systems are quite similar and follow the same growth pattern for each individual school year. Both school systems are showing a projected decrease in the increase, but are still showing positive growth at the Elementary and Middle School levels. Orange County High School is projected to experience a negative growth rate in 2014 -15 followed by positive growth rates for the remaining 10 year projections. Chapel Hill /Carrboro High School is showing varying positive growth rates over the next ten years. Year -by -year percent growth is shown on the attached table as well as the projected LOS. The projection models were updated using current (November 15, 2013) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. 29 45