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11 <br />2014 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br />I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br />A. Level of Service .................................... ............................(No Change) .............. Pg. 1 <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership .............................. (Change) .................... Pg. 2 <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Elementa <br />105% <br />105% <br />Middle <br />107% <br />107% <br />High <br />110% <br />110% <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership .............................. (Change) .................... Pg. 2 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ... ............................... (No Change) ..............Pg.17 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) ........... ............................(No Change) .............. Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology .............(No Change) .............. Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections .................................. (Change) .................... Pg. 29 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2013 -14 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools <br />Chapel HiltlCarrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Elementary <br />5829 <br />5554 <br />11 <br />3694 <br />3433 <br />30 <br />Middle <br />2840 <br />2858 <br />73 <br />1 2166 <br />1747 <br />63 <br />High <br />3875 <br />3764 <br />(32) <br />1 2439 <br />2421 <br />106 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ... ............................... (No Change) ..............Pg.17 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) ........... ............................(No Change) .............. Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology .............(No Change) .............. Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections .................................. (Change) .................... Pg. 29 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2013 -14 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools <br />(The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An "L" <br />indicates the projection was low compared to the actual, whereas an "H" indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br />Year Projection Made for 2013 -14 Membership <br />Actual 2013 <br />Membership <br />2008 -2009 <br />2009 -2010 <br />2010 -2011 <br />2011 -2012 <br />2012 -2013 <br />Elementary <br />5554 <br />5703 <br />1 H149 <br />5604 <br />H50 <br />5489 <br />L65 <br />5572 <br />1 H18 <br />5612 <br />1 H58 <br />Middle <br />2858 <br />2960 <br />1 H102 <br />2848 <br />L10 <br />2795 <br />L63 <br />2796 <br />1 L62 <br />2862 <br />1 H4 <br />High <br />3764 <br />3930 <br />1 H166 <br />3792 <br />H28 <br />3733 <br />L31 <br />3783 <br />1 H19 <br />3828 <br />1 H64 <br />1 <br />