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9 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2013 -14 School Year — Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [(n)] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />projection was high compared to the actual.) <br />Year <br />Projection <br />Made: <br />Year Projection Made for 2013 -14 Membership <br />10 -11 <br />Actual 2013 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />Membership <br />2008 -2009 <br />2009 -2010 <br />2010 -2011 <br />2011 -2012 <br />2012 -2013 <br />Elementary <br />3433 <br />3337 [(166)] <br />3355 [(48)] <br />3435 [32] <br />3438 [35] <br />3433 [0] <br />Middle <br />1747 <br />1708 24 <br />1751 67 <br />1732 48 <br />1716 32 <br />1733 14 <br />High <br />2421 <br />2254 [(61)] <br />2298 [(17)] <br />2258 [)57)] <br />2278 [(37)] <br />2355[(66)] <br />D. Student Growth Rate ...................................................... (Change) .................... Pg. 39 <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year <br />Projection <br />Made: <br />10 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2013 -14 <br />Elementary <br />91-57% <br />44% <br />1.59% <br />1.18% <br />1.44% <br />1.34% <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />1.30% <br />Middle <br />67% <br />1.94% <br />1.59% <br />1.58% <br />1.53% <br />1.84% <br />2.01% <br />1.64% <br />1.42% <br />High <br />1 1.73% <br />1 1.600/. <br />1.27% <br />1 1.38% <br />1 1.59% <br />1 1.61% <br />1 1.43% <br />1 1.35% <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ... ............................(No Change) .............. Pg. 42 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 95.3 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years but <br />remain positive (average —1.4% per year compared to 2.0% over the past 10 years). <br />C. Capacity has increased by 585 students due to the opening of Northside Elementary <br />School. Projections show that Chapel Hill /Carrboro Elementary School 412 will be <br />needed in 2020 -21. This is one year earlier than last year's projections. <br />Middle School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 100.6 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the <br />next 10 years than it has in the previous 10 years (average —1 .6% compared to an average <br />of 0.67% over the past 10 years). <br />C. The planned addition to Culbreth Middle School for the 2014 -15 school year is proposed <br />to increase capacity with the addition of 104 seats. As a result, projections show that <br />Chapel Hill /Carrboro Middle School 45 is projected to be needed in 2020 -21. This is <br />three years later than last year's projections <br />ii <br />