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<br /> Orange County Comprehensive Parks and Recreation Master Plan
<br /> CHAPTER 5-Demographics and Driving Factors 5
<br /> Population Projections to the Year 2030
<br /> In the adopted 2030 Comprehensive Plan for Orange County would have 134,770 persons in 2010 (actual
<br /> County, Section C of the "Orange County Profile Ele- was 133,801), and predicts 154,009 for the year
<br /> ment" contains an assessment of population projec- 2020 and 173,248 persons by the year 2030.
<br /> tions. Several different methodologies were exam- This data is reflected in Table 5-E (replacing the 2010
<br /> ined in that section, all of which yielded somewhat projections with actual 2010 US Census data):
<br /> different projections for the future.This analysis was
<br /> done prior to the existence of the 2010 U.S. Census Two important caveats must be added about these
<br /> data, so it is now possible to look at how the differ- population projections. First, population projections
<br /> ent methodologies performed for the first decade of are expected assumptions based on past historical
<br /> 2000-2010. trends, and may be affected by economic changes,
<br /> migration and mobility, and other factors. Even
<br /> Table 5-E shows the projected population by town- though the methodology used above was the closest
<br /> ship for Orange County in 2010, 2020 and 2030 - fit to the actual county results in 2010, it may not
<br /> which is also the target date for this plan. hold true for future decades, and as such, all projec-
<br /> The methodology which most-closely matched the tions must be used with an understanding that actu-
<br /> actual Orange County population growth through al results will change. It is possible that the project-
<br /> 2010 is the "average 10-year linear" projection ed 173,248 figure for 2030 may be lower or higher
<br /> model. This method, the "medium" set of projec- depending on long-term trends and driving factors.
<br /> Table 5-E- Orange County Population Projections 2010-2030
<br /> e @ i � ,a COUNTY-TOTAL 133,801 154,009 173,248
<br /> BINGHAM TWP 6,527 81409 9,523
<br /> CEDAR GROVE TWP 5,222 6,694 7,576
<br /> CHAPEL HILL TWP 87,971 102,584 115,587
<br /> Town of Chapel Hill (OC pt) 54,397 56,166 62,198
<br /> Town of Carrboro 19,582 26,048 30,681
<br /> Unincorporated 13,992 20,372 22,711
<br /> CHEEKS 9,313 9,308 10,430
<br /> City of Mebane (OC pt) 1,793 971 1,119
<br /> Unincorporated 7,520 8,337 9,311
<br /> ENO TWP 7,501 7,734 8,555
<br /> HILLSBOROUGH TWP 13,809 14,679 16,199
<br /> Town of Hillsborough 6,087 7,874 9,088
<br /> Unincorporated 7,722 6,807 7,114
<br /> LITTLE RIVER TWP 3,458 4,601 5,376
<br /> 5-6
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