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Attachment D
<br />Debt Affordability Analysis
<br />Proposed FY 2014 -2018 CIP
<br />A B C D F F G H I J K L M N O P
<br />■ Value of 1¢ in FY 2014 = $1,606,829
<br />■ Assumed Growth Rate= 1.15%
<br />DAVENPORT & COMPANY
<br />September 26, 2013
<br />Note: The Analysis above does not include potential operating
<br />impacts associated with new capital projects, nor does it address
<br />potential changes in the County's existing operating budget.
<br />Orange County, NC 17
<br />Debt Service
<br />Requirements
<br />Revenue Available for DS
<br />Debt Service Cash
<br />Flow Surplus (Deficit)
<br />FY
<br />Existing Debt
<br />Service
<br />CIP Debt
<br />Service
<br />CIP
<br />Operating
<br />CIP Pay -Go Cash Impact
<br />: General Fund
<br />; Budgeted Debt
<br />Total Service
<br />General Fund Other
<br />Budgeted for Dedicated
<br />Pay -Go Cash Revenue
<br />Total Revenues
<br />Available
<br />Surplus/
<br />(Deficit)
<br />Revenue from
<br />Prior Tax Equiv.
<br />(Column 0)
<br />Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/
<br />Utilized (Deficit)
<br />Estimated
<br />Incremental Tax
<br />Equivalent
<br />Capital Reserve
<br />Fund Balance
<br />2014
<br />25,089,644
<br />-
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />2015
<br />24,201,003
<br />868,299
<br />4,957,232
<br />30,026,534:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(592,042)
<br />-
<br />(592,042)
<br />0.364
<br />2016
<br />22,744,495
<br />1,774,196
<br />4,724,433
<br />29,243,124 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />191,368
<br />598,830
<br />790,198
<br />-
<br />790,198
<br />2017
<br />21,655,566
<br />4,039,365
<br />4,801,994
<br />30,496,925 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(1,062,432)
<br />605,696
<br />(456,737)
<br />-
<br />-
<br />333,462
<br />2018
<br />21,688,632
<br />4,907,463
<br />4,666,219
<br />31,262,314:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(1,827,822)
<br />612,640
<br />(333,462)
<br />(881,720)
<br />0.521
<br />-
<br />2019
<br />20,418,975
<br />9,124,022
<br />4,666,219
<br />34,209,216:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,774,724)
<br />1,511,493
<br />(3,263,230)
<br />1.921
<br />-
<br />2020
<br />19,802,383
<br />8,888,517
<br />4,666,219 -
<br />33,357,120 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849 -
<br />29,434,493
<br />(3,922,627)
<br />4,829,468
<br />-
<br />906,841
<br />-
<br />906,841
<br />2021
<br />19,159,723
<br />8,653,013
<br />4,666,219
<br />32,478,955:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(3,044,462)
<br />4,884,840
<br />1,840,377
<br />2,747,218
<br />2022
<br />18,418,174
<br />8,417,508
<br />4,666,219
<br />31,501,901:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(2,067,408)
<br />4,940,846
<br />2,873,438
<br />5,620,657
<br />2023
<br />14,104,871
<br />8,182,003
<br />4,666,219
<br />26,953,093 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />2,481,400
<br />4,997,495
<br />7,478,895
<br />13,099,552
<br />2024
<br />10,225,448
<br />7,946,498
<br />4,666,219
<br />22,838,165:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />6,596,328
<br />5,054,794
<br />11,651,121
<br />24,750,673
<br />2025
<br />7,090,542
<br />7,710,993
<br />4,666,219
<br />19,467,754:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />9,966,739
<br />5,112,749
<br />15,079,488
<br />39,830,161
<br />2026
<br />4,753,048
<br />7,475,488
<br />4,666,219
<br />16,894,756 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />12,539,737
<br />5,171,369
<br />17,711,106
<br />57,541,267
<br />2027
<br />6,386,169
<br />7,239,983
<br />4,666,219
<br />18,292,371:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />11,142,121
<br />5,230,661
<br />16,372,782
<br />73,914,049
<br />2028
<br />1,568,129
<br />7,004,479
<br />4,666,219
<br />13,238,826;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />16,195,667
<br />5,290,632
<br />21,486,299
<br />95,400,348
<br />2029
<br />1,308,491
<br />6,768,974
<br />4,666,219
<br />12,743,683 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />16,690,809
<br />5,351,292
<br />22,042,101
<br />117,442,449
<br />2030
<br />1,257,283
<br />6,533,469
<br />4,666,219
<br />12,456,971:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />16,977,522
<br />5,412,647
<br />22,390,168
<br />139,832,617
<br />2031
<br />1,206,075
<br />6,297,964
<br />4,666,219
<br />12,170,258;
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />17,264,234
<br />5,474,705
<br />22,738,939
<br />162,571,556
<br />2032
<br />1,154,868
<br />6,062,459
<br />4,666,219
<br />11,883,546:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />17,550,947
<br />5,537,475
<br />23,088,422
<br />185,659,978
<br />2033
<br />814,253
<br />5,826,954
<br />4,666,219 -
<br />11,307,426 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849 -
<br />29,434,493
<br />18,127,067
<br />5,600,964
<br />-
<br />23,728,031
<br />-
<br />209,388,009
<br />2034
<br />-
<br />5,591,449
<br />4,666,219
<br />10,257,668:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />19,176,824
<br />5,665,182
<br />24,842,006
<br />234,230,015
<br />2035
<br />4,921,795
<br />4,666,219
<br />9,588,014:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />19,846,479
<br />5,730,135
<br />25,576,614
<br />259,806,629
<br />2036
<br />4,244,195
<br />4,666,219
<br />8,910,414 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />20,524,078
<br />5,795,834
<br />26,319,912
<br />286,126,540
<br />2037
<br />2,898,555
<br />4,666,219
<br />7,564,774:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />21,869,719
<br />5,862,285
<br />27,732,004
<br />313,858,544
<br />2038
<br />2,280,326
<br />4,666,219
<br />6,946,545
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />22,487,948
<br />5,929,499
<br />28,417,447
<br />342,275,991
<br />2039
<br />-
<br />4,666,219
<br />4,666,219
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />24,768,274
<br />5,997,483
<br />30,765,757
<br />373,041,747
<br />2040
<br />4,666,219
<br />4,666,219:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />24,768,274
<br />6,066,247
<br />30,834,520
<br />403,876,268
<br />2041
<br />4,666,219
<br />4,666,219
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />24,768,274
<br />6,135,799
<br />30,904,072
<br />434,780,340
<br />2042
<br />4,666,219
<br />4,666,219 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />24,768,274
<br />6,206,148
<br />30,974,422
<br />465,754,762
<br />2043
<br />4,666,219
<br />4,666,219:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />24,768,274
<br />6,277,304
<br />31,045,578
<br />496,800,340
<br />Total
<br />243,047,772
<br />143,657,966
<br />191,478,611
<br />578,184,349 ;
<br />Total
<br />(790,198)
<br />Total Tax Effect
<br />2.811
<br />■ Value of 1¢ in FY 2014 = $1,606,829
<br />■ Assumed Growth Rate= 1.15%
<br />DAVENPORT & COMPANY
<br />September 26, 2013
<br />Note: The Analysis above does not include potential operating
<br />impacts associated with new capital projects, nor does it address
<br />potential changes in the County's existing operating budget.
<br />Orange County, NC 17
<br />
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