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Future Debt Affordability
<br />Proposed FY 2014 -2018 CIP and FY 2019 -2023 Debt Capacity
<br />A B C D E F G H I J K L M
<br />rt ,
<br />N O P
<br />• Value of 1¢ in FY 2014 = $1,606,829
<br />• Assumed Growth Rate= 1.15%
<br />DAVENPORT & COMPANY
<br />September 26, 2013
<br />Note: The Analysis above does not include potential operating
<br />impacts associated with new capital projects, nor does it address
<br />potential changes in the County's existing operating budget.
<br />Orange County, NC 20
<br />Debt Service
<br />Requirements
<br />Revenue Available for DS
<br />Debt
<br />Service Cash
<br />Flow Surplus (Deficit)
<br />FY
<br />Existing Debt
<br />Service
<br />CIP Debt
<br />Service
<br />CIP
<br />Operating
<br />CIP Pay-Go Cash Impact
<br />; General Fund
<br />; Budgeted Debt
<br />Total Service
<br />General Fund Other
<br />Budgeted for Dedicated
<br />Pay-Go Cash Revenue
<br />Total Revenues
<br />Available
<br />Surplus/
<br />(Deficit)
<br />Revenue from
<br />Prior Tax Equiv. Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/
<br />(Column 0) Utilized (Deficit)
<br />Estimated
<br />Incremental Tax
<br />Equivalent
<br />Capital Reserve
<br />Fund Balance
<br />2014
<br />25,089,644
<br />-
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493 :
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />2015
<br />24,201,003
<br />868,299
<br />4,957,232
<br />30,026,534:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(592,042)
<br />-
<br />(592,042)
<br />0.361
<br />2016
<br />22,744,495
<br />1,774,196
<br />4,724,433
<br />29,243,124:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />191,368
<br />598,830
<br />790,198
<br />-
<br />790,198
<br />2017
<br />21,655,566
<br />4,039,365
<br />4,801,994
<br />30,496,925:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(1,062,432)
<br />605,696
<br />(456,737)
<br />-
<br />-
<br />333,462
<br />2018
<br />21,688,632
<br />4,907,463
<br />4,666,219
<br />31,262,314
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(1,827,822)
<br />612,640
<br />(333,462)
<br />(881,720)
<br />0.52
<br />-
<br />2019
<br />20,418,975
<br />9,124,022
<br />4,666,219
<br />34,209,216:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,774,724)
<br />1,511,493
<br />(3,263,230)
<br />1.92G
<br />2020
<br />19,802,383
<br />9,795,358
<br />4,666,219 -
<br />34,263,960 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849 -
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,829,468)
<br />4,829,468
<br />-
<br />-
<br />-
<br />-
<br />2021
<br />19,159,723
<br />10,493,390
<br />4,666,219
<br />34,319,332:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,884,840)
<br />4,884,840
<br />0
<br />0
<br />2022
<br />18,418,174
<br />11,290,946
<br />4,666,219 -
<br />34,375,339 �
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849 -
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,940,846)
<br />4,940,846
<br />-
<br />-
<br />-
<br />0
<br />2023
<br />14,104,871
<br />15,660,898
<br />4,666,219
<br />34,431,988:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(4,997,495)
<br />4,997,495
<br />(0)
<br />-
<br />2024
<br />10,225,448
<br />19,597,619
<br />4,666,219 -
<br />34,489,286 �
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849 -
<br />29,434,493
<br />(5,054,794)
<br />5,054,794
<br />-
<br />-
<br />-
<br />-
<br />2025
<br />7,090,542
<br />19,062,503
<br />4,666,219
<br />30,819,263:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />(1,384,771)
<br />5,112,749
<br />3,727,978
<br />3,727,978
<br />2026
<br />4,753,048
<br />18,527,386
<br />4,666,219
<br />27,946,653;1
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />1,487,839
<br />5,171,369
<br />6,659,208
<br />10,387,187
<br />2027
<br />6,386,169
<br />17,992,269
<br />4,666,219
<br />29,044,657:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />389,836
<br />5,230,661
<br />5,620,497
<br />16,007,683
<br />2028
<br />1,568,129
<br />17,457,152
<br />4,666,219
<br />23,691,500:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />5,742,993
<br />5,290,632
<br />11,033,626
<br />27,041,309
<br />2029
<br />1,308,491
<br />16,922,035
<br />4,666,219
<br />22,896,745:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />6,537,748
<br />5,351,292
<br />11,889,039
<br />38,930,348
<br />2030
<br />1,257,283
<br />16,386,918
<br />4,666,219
<br />22,310,420:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />7,124,072
<br />5,412,647
<br />12,536,719
<br />51,467,067
<br />2031
<br />1,206,075
<br />15,851,802
<br />4,666,219
<br />21,724,096 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />7,710,397
<br />5,474,705
<br />13,185,102
<br />64,652,169
<br />2032
<br />1,154,868
<br />15,316,685
<br />4,666,219
<br />21,137,771:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />8,296,721
<br />5,537,475
<br />13,834,196
<br />78,486,364
<br />2033
<br />814,253
<br />14,781,568
<br />4,666,219
<br />20,262,040:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />9,172,453
<br />5,600,964
<br />14,773,417
<br />93,259,782
<br />2034
<br />-
<br />14,246,451
<br />4,666,219
<br />18,912,670:1
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />10,521,822
<br />5,665,182
<br />16,187,004
<br />109,446,786
<br />2035
<br />13,277,185
<br />4,666,219
<br />17,943,404:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />11,491,089
<br />5,730,135
<br />17,221,224
<br />126,668,010
<br />2036
<br />12,299,973
<br />4,666,219
<br />16,966,192:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />12,468,300
<br />5,795,834
<br />18,264,134
<br />144,932,144
<br />2037
<br />10,654,721
<br />4,666,219
<br />15,320,940:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />14,113,553
<br />5,862,285
<br />19,975,838
<br />164,907,982
<br />2038
<br />9,736,880
<br />4,666,219
<br />14,403,099:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />15,031,394
<br />5,929,499
<br />20,960,893
<br />185,868,874
<br />2039
<br />7,156,942
<br />4,666,219
<br />11,823,161 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />17,611,332
<br />5,997,483
<br />23,608,815
<br />209,477,689
<br />2040
<br />6,403,910
<br />4,666,219
<br />11,070,129:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />18,364,364
<br />6,066,247
<br />24,430,611
<br />233,908,300
<br />2041
<br />5,648,865
<br />4,666,219
<br />10,315,084:
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />1 19,119,409
<br />6,135,799
<br />25,255,207
<br />259,163,507
<br />2042
<br />4,856,010
<br />4,666,219
<br />9,522,229 ;
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />1 19,912,263
<br />6,206,148
<br />26,118,411
<br />285,281,919
<br />2043
<br />2,290,454
<br />4,666,219
<br />6,956,673
<br />25,089,644
<br />4,344,849
<br />29,434,493
<br />22,477,820
<br />6,277,304
<br />28,755,124
<br />314,037,043
<br />Total
<br />243,047,772
<br />326,421,263
<br />191,478,611
<br />760,947,646
<br />Total
<br />(790,198)
<br />Total Tax Effect
<br />2.811
<br />• Value of 1¢ in FY 2014 = $1,606,829
<br />• Assumed Growth Rate= 1.15%
<br />DAVENPORT & COMPANY
<br />September 26, 2013
<br />Note: The Analysis above does not include potential operating
<br />impacts associated with new capital projects, nor does it address
<br />potential changes in the County's existing operating budget.
<br />Orange County, NC 20
<br />
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