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2013 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br />I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br />A. Level of Service .................. ............................(No Change) ......... Pg. 1 <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership ......................... (Change) .......... Pg. 2 <br />Chapel HillICarrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Elementa <br />105% <br />105% <br />Middle <br />107% <br />107% <br />High <br />110% <br />110% <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership ......................... (Change) .......... Pg. 2 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ........................(No Change) ....... Pg.17 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) . ............................(No Change)......Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ....... (No Change) ....... Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections ....................... .......(Change)...........Pg.29 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools <br />Chapel HiltlCarrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />projection was high comp ared to the actual. <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Elementary <br />5244 <br />5543 <br />79 <br />3694 <br />3403 <br />55 <br />Middle <br />2840 <br />2785 <br />32 <br />1 2166 <br />1684 <br />(20) <br />High <br />3875 <br />3796 <br />82 <br />1 2439 <br />2315 <br />32 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ........................(No Change) ....... Pg.17 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) . ............................(No Change)......Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ....... (No Change) ....... Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections ....................... .......(Change)...........Pg.29 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [ (n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />projection was high comp ared to the actual. <br />Year Projection Made for 2012 -13 Membership <br />Actual 2012 <br />2007 -08 <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />Membership <br />Elementary <br />5543 <br />5817 [274] <br />5703 [160] <br />5604 [61] <br />5489 [(54)] <br />5572 [29] <br />Middle <br />2783 <br />3003 [220] <br />2960 [177] <br />2848 [65] <br />2795 [12] <br />2796 [13] <br />High <br />3796 <br />3959 [163] <br />3930 [134] <br />3792 [(4)] <br />3733 [(63)] <br />3783 [(13)] <br />