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Section II <br />A Student Membership Growth Rate <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be <br />conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory <br />Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br />certification. <br />Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC <br />prior to certification. <br />2. Definition — The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting <br />from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical membership <br />projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year -by- <br />year growth rate that may be positive or negative but rather the average of the annual <br />anticipated growth rates over the next ten (10) years. <br />3. Standard for: Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br />See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Analysis of Existing Conditions <br />The membership figures and percentage The membership figures and percentage <br />growth on the attachments show continued growth on the attachments show continued <br />growth at each school level within the growth at each school level within the <br />system. <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br />ten years: <br />i • <br />system. <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br />ten years: <br />Year Projection <br />Made: <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />Year Projection <br />Made: <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />Elementary <br />1.5% <br />1.72% <br />1.44% <br />1.59% <br />1.18% <br />Elementary <br />1.16% <br />1.34% <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />Middle <br />2.03% <br />1.93% <br />1.67% <br />1.94% <br />1.59% <br />Middle <br />1.44% <br />1.53% <br />1.84% <br />2.01% <br />1.64% <br />High <br />2.21% <br />1.8% <br />1.57% <br />1.73% <br />1.60% <br />High <br />1.0% <br />1.38% <br />1.59% <br />1.61% <br />1.43% <br />5. Recommendation <br />Use statistics as noted. <br />Recommendation <br />Use statistics as noted <br />37 <br />