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Section II <br />Chapel Hill Carrboro School District <br />45 <br />Elementary <br />The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 at this level were overestimated by <br />29 students. The actual change was an increase of 79 students. Over the previous ten years, this <br />level has shown varying increases in growth rates including a decrease in actual membership one <br />year (2009 -10) which was most likely due to the shorter enrollment period caused by the <br />institution of the new date rising kindergarteners must be five years old. Following that dip, <br />membership numbers are again increasing, with a significant jump (168 students) last year. <br />Construction of Elementary School 411 is underway and the school is scheduled to open in the <br />fall of 2013. The projections this year are showing the need for Elementary School 412 in <br />2021 -22 whereas last year's projections showed the need in 2018 -19. This change is due to the <br />slowing of the growth rate which likely is at least partially attributable to the economic <br />conditions the country has been faced with the past four years. <br />Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre -K programs <br />continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre -K programs exist. <br />Middle <br />The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were overestimated by <br />11 students. The actual membership increased by 32. Over the previous ten years, growth has <br />been quite variable and included a decrease in actual membership in 2004 -05. Growth rates <br />during this time period have ranged from -1.99% to +2.86 percent with most years showing a <br />growth rate of around 1% or less. The projections show a need for Middle School 45 in 2017- <br />18, which is the same projection as last year. <br />High School <br />The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were underestimated <br />by 13 students. The actual membership increased by 82 students. Over the previous ten years, <br />change has been variable with actual decreases in membership in 2008 -09 and again in 2009 -10. <br />Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -0.66% to +5.31 %. This year's <br />projections show that additional capacity is needed in 2020 -21, which is the same as last year's <br />30 <br />