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w <br />o <br />PROJECTION TYPE <br />DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS <br />FORMULA <br />ASSUMPTIONS <br />Tischler Linear (OCS & <br />CHCCS) <br />Mathematical formula: straight fine protection <br />r-((c*brxI+b <br />r-projecled population; c=ttislorical annual change; b=basa year;)c- projection years <br />Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br />Base year growth reflect 10 <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematics$ smear with percent variation among school <br />BYM= base year Znd rn onth membership; BYlmyearstudent membership increment <br />increase i n BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br />(OCS) <br />levelsi. reflacts progressing waves of membership <br />base; EYNIzensuing year menrberiship� v <br />-projection year: %SL=% of total <br />increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br />membership per school Level (i.e. elementary, middle, high): EYMISL=ensuing year <br />constraints <br />member by school level <br />Base year growth reflects 10 <br />OCPLinearWave <br />Mathematical finear with percent variation among school <br />BYM= base year 2nd mo nth membership: BYlayear student membership increment <br />decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 20ID-2011 <br />(CHCCS) <br />levels, reflects progressing waves of membershilp <br />baseF EYWensuing year membershipi, ri�-projection year: %$L=1k of�tal <br />reflects decreases in housing gro%,th� reflects <br />membership per schoof levet (i,e. elementary, middle, high); EYMISL=ensuing year <br />buiWout constraints <br />member by school level <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n=l <br />advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each <br />a =(E G� I &f� 13 <br />Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the <br />�-Ycar Cohort (OCS <br />grade tevel and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n=3 <br />kindergarten grade leve� assurnes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b=g .4 1a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K=kinclargarten membership: n=given school year; G=given grade's <br />graduate to the ne)d level each year <br />d/or historkal growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grades membership; a--average <br />advancement rate; b=projected membership <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />ft=1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each <br />a =(Z G� 1 9M) 15 <br />Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the <br />5 year Cohort (006 & <br />grade level and Men uses each rate to calculate <br />rr-5 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCSJ <br />pr*cW memberphsp by school level; an assumed <br />bmig .1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K=kmdergartan membeiship; n=given school year; G=given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />and/or hislodcal growth rates <br />rriembershiptother than kindergarten); g= previous grades membership, a;;iaverage <br />advancement rate; b=projected membership <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n=1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each <br />a -(I Gn 19,,) 110 <br />Assumes a 1% annual growth rate forthe <br />10 year Cohort (00S <br />grade level and then uses each Tate to calculate <br />n=10 <br />kindergarten grade;eyel: assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b=g �, (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K--idindergarten membership; negiven school year G=given grade's <br />graduate to the neid Level each year <br />andlor historical growth rates <br />irembership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a=average <br />advancement ratei b=projected membership <br />CD <br />m <br />m <br />