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Section II <br />B. Student Projection Methodology <br />34 <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — This section is reviewed and recommended <br />by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee <br />(SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br />2. Definition — The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future <br />years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle <br />and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific <br />time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as `models'. <br />3. Standard for: Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br />Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year <br />history /cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear <br />Wave and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of <br />each model. <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br />Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its <br />prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the <br />annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and <br />construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment ILB.3 shows <br />the performance of the models for the 2012 -13 school year from the prior year projection. <br />5. Recommendation — <br />More than ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy of the <br />results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better <br />results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models but projected <br />future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county, proposed <br />growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. <br />The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection <br />base. This is especially pertinent in the Orange County School District which serves students <br />living within the Orange County portion of the City of Mebane which had had little historic <br />enrollment impact. The significant proposed residential growth occurring within Mebane's <br />jurisdiction has yet to be fully entered into the historically based projection methods. Although <br />construction activity in this portion of the county has slowed, there are still a substantial number <br />of approved but undeveloped residential lots. <br />19 <br />