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Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [ (n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />projection was high comp ared to the actual. <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year Projection Made for 2012 -13 Membership <br />2008 -09 <br />Actual 2012 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />Membership <br />2007 -08 <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />Elementary <br />3403 <br />3556 [153] <br />3337 [(166)] <br />3355 [(48)] <br />3435 [32] <br />3438 [35] <br />Middle <br />1684 <br />1 1748 [64] <br />1708 [24] <br />1751 [67] <br />1732 [48] <br />1716 32] <br />High <br />2315 <br />1 2250 [(65)] <br />2254 [(61)] <br />2298 [(17)] <br />2258 [)57)] <br />2278 [(37)] <br />D. Student Growth Rate ............................................ (Change) .......... Pg. 37 <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate <br />over Next 10 Years <br />Chapel HillICarrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Year <br />Projection <br />Made: <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />2008 -09 <br />2009 -10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />Elementary <br />1.5% <br />1.72% <br />1.44% <br />1.59% <br />1.18% <br />1.16% <br />1.34% <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />Middle <br />2.03% <br />1.93% <br />1.67% <br />1.94% <br />1.59% <br />1.44% <br />1.53% <br />1.84% <br />2.01% <br />1.64% <br />High <br />2.21% <br />1 1.8% <br />1 1.57% <br />1 1.730/. <br />1.60% <br />1.0% <br />1.38% <br />1 1.59% <br />1 1.61% <br />1 1.43% <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 40 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School Level <br />A. Exceeds 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 105.7 %). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years but <br />remain positive (average —1 .2% per year compared to 2.0% over the past 10 years). <br />C. Elementary School 411 is slated to open in the fall of 2013 which currently resolves the <br />temporary overcapacity circumstance since housing can be timed with the under - <br />construction school. The projections show Elementary School 412 will be needed in <br />2021 -22; this is 3 years later than last year's projections (which projected a need in 2018- <br />19) and is attributable to the projected slower rate of growth (which may increase if <br />economic activity improves). <br />Middle School Level <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is98.1 %). <br />11 <br />10 <br />