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year (i.e. 145 new students in school year 2002-03, 150 new students in school <br /> year 2003-04, etc.). <br /> Figure 17. Orange County Planning Projections <br /> OCS <br /> 8,000 8254 8811 6744 7019 71 <br /> 6,000 <br /> 4,000 <br /> 2,000 <br /> 0 2001 2002 12003 12004 12005 12006 12007 12008 12009 2010 2011 <br /> ■FN 1872 2037 2077 2119 2182 2208 2253 2300 2350 2400 2453 <br /> O Middle 1504 1528 11558 11590 11622 1 16551 1690 1 1728 1763 1 1801 1 1840 <br /> 0 Mom~13078 3049 13109 317 44 <br /> 1 3235 3302 3371 33 1 3518 13593 13671 <br /> ■Elementary 17 Middle ■High <br /> 17 <br /> Cohort Survival Model <br /> This methodology uses historical trends to.calculate projected students by age <br /> group or grade level. While the Student Generation Model outlined in the previous <br /> section considers new housing starts, the Cohort Survival Model also provides for <br /> birth rates and migration. This is an important factor because live birth rates for <br /> Orange County residents have been relatively flat for some time. However, <br /> student populations continue to increase annually. The use of computer <br /> spreadsheet models provides ease in updating these numbers each year and in <br /> providing varying assumptions (for example, comparison of student growth in a <br /> three, five, or ten year period). <br /> Figures 18 and 19 apply the Cohort Survival Model and projects future growth <br /> based on growth over the last five years as a base. Figures 20 and 21 apply the <br /> same model but project on growth over the last three years. <br /> 25 <br />