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Methodologies to Use in Projecting Future Students <br /> Several student projection models were discussed by the Task Force including <br /> models that are currently available as well as ones that will be at hand in the future. <br /> Reviewing historical growth patterns would be a good starting point for making <br /> membership projections. <br /> The average annual increase in students fluctuates somewhat depending on the <br /> period used. <br /> • 10 year average annual increase <br /> • CHCCS - 361 new students per year <br /> • OCS - 126 new students per year <br /> • 5 year average annual increase <br /> • CHCCS - 355 new students per year <br /> • OCS - 139 new students per year <br /> • 3 year average annual Increase <br /> • CHCCS - 427 new students per year <br /> • OCS - 87 new students per year <br /> Task Force members recognized that using a compilation of methods for projecting <br /> the number of students is an important consideration in making the most accurate <br /> projections. It is also important to look at historical growth patterns for each district. <br /> In order to provide consistency in projections from year to year, it is also important <br /> that the methodologies outlined in this report are the only ones used unless the <br /> Board of Commissioners approves an alternative method. This consistency allows <br /> for "best practice" projections that provide consistency from year-to-year. <br /> Currently Available Methodologies <br /> Readily available projection models include <br /> • North Carolina Department of Public Instruction (DPI) model, <br /> • Student Generation Report prepared by Tischler and Associates, <br /> • Orange County Planning Department model, <br /> • Cohort Survival Method, a model used widely by education statisticians <br /> 21 <br />