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Executive Summary <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2011-12 School Year - Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [(n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />ro'ection was hi h com ared to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2011-12 Membership <br /> Actua12011 <br /> <br />Membershi 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 <br />Element 3348 3297 51 3464 116 3287 61 3304 44 3362 14 <br />Middle 1704 1718 14 1724 20 1691 8 1732 28 1716 12 <br />Hi 2283 2226 57 2249 34 2238 45 2274 9 2263 ZO <br />D. Student Growth Rate ............................................(Change)..........Pg. 37 <br /> Avera e Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years <br /> Chapel H~[UCarrboro <br />School District Orange County <br />School District <br /> 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 <br />Elementa 1.85% 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.59% 1.84% 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% 1.6% <br />Middle 2.58% 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.94% 1.78% 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% 2.01% <br />Hi h 2.31% 2.21% 1.8% 1.57% 1.73% 1.49% 1.0% 1.38% 1.59% 1.61% <br />E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 40 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE 5TATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School District <br />A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 104.2%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. The projections are showing a need for Elementary School #11 in 2012-13 by a projected <br />overcapacity of 66 students. Elementary School #11 is expected to open in the fall of <br />2013. However, if the 2012 membership numbers (to be reported November 15, 2012) <br />and/or CAPS issued /requested meet or exceed the established Elementary level LOS, the <br />issuance of further CAPS may be impacted until Elementary School #11 is opened and <br />additional Elementary level capacity is added. <br />Middle School District <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is 96.9%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Chapel Hi1UCarrboro Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2017-18. <br />ii <br />