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8 <br /> Elementary School#8 <br /> While our Board acknowledges the fact that the Average Projection Model is the County's <br /> standard model used for student membership projections, we feel confident that our future <br /> elementary student growth will outpace the average and reflect trends we are currently <br /> experiencing which are more in line with SAPFO's Three Year Projection Model. In addition, <br /> NC DPI projects our elementary population for the upcoming school year will increase at an <br /> even higher rate than any of the SAPFO models. <br /> Elementary School Student <br /> Membership Projections <br /> 2012-13 <br /> Membership <br /> Increase <br /> Projection <br /> SAPFO -Average 90 <br /> Model <br /> SAPFO-3 Year 124 <br /> Model <br /> NC DPI Projection 173 <br /> It is important to note that for each of the past six years, actual OCS elementary student <br /> enrollment has exceeded state projections for a cumulative total of 202 students in excess of <br /> state projections—an average of more than 33 each year. <br /> Chart 1 (attached) compares our District's elementary student membership projections with <br /> elementary capacity. In summary: <br /> • SAPFO's Average Projection Model projects that elementary capacity for OCS would <br /> exceed 100% in 2016-17 and exceed 105% in 2020-21. <br /> • SAPFO's Three Year Projection Model reflects that elementary capacity for OCS <br /> would exceed 100% in 2015-16 and exceed 105% in 2018-19. <br /> While we did not chart growth projections using the NC DPI projection, we would deduce that <br /> the need for Elementary #8 would be greatly accelerated with this model, since NC DPI's <br /> projection is much higher than either of the two SAPFO charted projections. <br /> Our Board also feels it is important to mention that since 2007 our District has been very <br /> committed to a strong Pre-K Program. We currently serve 154 at-risk and exceptional <br /> children, ages three and four years, in nine of our elementary classrooms. Four rooms are <br /> used as regular Pre-K classrooms, three are used for the Head Start program, and two are <br /> used for exceptional children classrooms. At the time SAPFO was approved originally, Pre-K <br /> programs did not exist, and capacity numbers have never been updated to reflect the loss of <br /> Orange Counly Schools <br /> "Providing educalional opportunities for successful futures." <br />