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Section II <br />projections show that additional capacity is needed in 2020-21, whereas last year's projections <br />did not show a need in the 10-year projection time frame. Additional High School capacity is <br />expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School from 800 students to 1,200 <br />students, which was included in the construction plans for the high school. <br />Orange County School District <br />Elementary <br />The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 at this level were overestimated by <br />14 students. The actual membership increased by 63 students. Over the previous ten years, this <br />level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from -185 to +8 to +44 to +71 to -10 to <br />+66 to +86 to +7, +46, +74, and +64 students a year. This created a historical base of negative <br />growth which was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth <br />projections. However, the membership numbers have shown steady increase in recent years. In <br />the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential <br />development than in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of <br />new families in older, existing housing stock. Projections show the need for an additional <br />Elementary School in 2020-21. <br />Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs <br />continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. <br />Middle <br />The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 for this level were overestimated by <br />12 students. The actual membership increased by 6. Over the previous ten years, growth has <br />varied widely and included an unexpected decrease of 78 students in 2004-OS with smaller <br />decreases each year unti12007-08 and then increasing the past three years. The district's third <br />Middle School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an <br />additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However, staff is <br />closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane <br />and Hillsborough. <br />31 <br />