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n- <br />STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br />PROJECTION TYPE <br />DESCRIPTION / CHARACTERISTICS <br />FORMULA <br />ASSUMPTIONS <br />Tischler Linear (OCS & <br />CHCCS) <br />Mathematical formula; straight line projection <br />y-q(clb)*x)+b <br />Y-proieded Fopubdion; c=hislorical annual change; b4m Year; x- PrOf-11- V08M <br />Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br />SYM + (BYI + 6(a)) - FYM EYM `%S1. a EYMISL <br />Sm year growth reflector lolear average: <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical linearvilh percent variation among school <br />SYR-- base year 2nd mangy membership; BYI=yearstudert memberaNp increment <br />be"; EYM"nauing membership; ft--projection year, %SL--% of total <br />increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br />(OCS) <br />levels; reflects progfassing waves of membership <br />year <br />membership per school level (!,a, elementary, middle. high): EYMISL=errsuing Year <br />increases in housing growth; reflects truldoul, <br />constraints <br />member by school level <br />BYM + (BYI - 16(n)): EYM EYM' %SL - EYMtSL <br />Base year growth refteft 10-yLar average; <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical linear vath percent variation among school <br />SYM= base year 2nd month membership; BYtoyear student membership increment <br />base; EYINI-ensuing membership; n=projectJon year; %r>L--% of total <br />decrease In BYI of 15 until school year 2010201 1 <br />(CHCCS) <br />levels; reflects pmgrass4n waves of membership <br />year <br />membership per school level (im, elementary, middle, high); EYMISLzensuing yew <br />re,"ft decreases in housing growth; reflects <br />Indidout constraints <br />member by school level <br />K„ x k (k., * 0,01) <br />Mathematical fomyA that computes the average <br />ncl <br />advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each <br />a w(TL Gn I gj) 13 <br />Assures a 1% annual growth rate for the <br />3-Year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n=3 <br />kindergarten grade lavat; assumes the some <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />bag A (3) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K-kindargarlon mernksorship; "given school year; Q=grv*fl Wml**$ <br />graduate to the rwxt Level each year <br />and/or historical growth rates <br />mernbership(olhef than itindergerten); g- previous grade's membership; a--average <br />advancement rate; ls=pwjected membership <br />Kn = k (k., * 0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />nzi <br />advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each <br />a =(I G, I ltn,) 16 <br />Assumes a 1% annual growth (ate for the <br />5 year Cohort (OCS <br />grade We] and than uses each fate to calculate <br />M25 <br />kladeroarten grade beet; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school twat; an assumed <br />bso �, (a) <br />percentage of students In each grade W01 <br />kindergarten membership is based an birth records <br />K-Wndergaden membership: n-given school year: Gcgiven grades <br />graduate to IN nand Wal each year <br />and/or historical growth rates <br />menibership(othet than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a*average <br />advancement rate; baprojected membership <br />r. 2 k , + (k., ' 0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />nxl <br />advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each <br />a =(1 0. 1 9,,)l ic <br />Assumes a 1% annual growth rato for the <br />10 year Cohort (OCS <br />grade level and Then uses each rate to cakularlit <br />nz;10 <br />xinder9nden grade level,, assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected momborship, by school level; an assumed <br />bg .1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K=Kindergartim membership; n-giverr school year, GmUlver, grade's <br />gradual* to the fteg Leval each year <br />and/or historical growth rates <br />membarsbip(other than Kindergarten); It= pwA*w anuWa membership; azaversob <br />advancement rate: bwpmjeded membership <br />CD <br />O <br />ti <br />