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-baa- Cccv� <br /> Ridership Summaries and Station to Station Ridership Forecasts <br /> Tattle D-2 Summary of Ridership Forecasts—2035(continued)BRT Low <br /> Durham-Orange County BRT <br /> UNC Hospitals to Alston Ave A3 via Woodmont C2 and South S uare a D3 BRT <br /> BOARDINGS <br /> by Stations <br /> and Mode of PnR MR Walk Bus <br /> ASSUMPTIONS Element Setting Notes Access Stations Access Access Access Transfers Total <br /> Non-included attributes for rail +8 min Subject to FTA approval UNC Hospitals South 0 0 40 550 590 <br /> Average speed 25.6 mph Mason Farm 10 0 170 20 200 <br /> Alignments and stations "modeling run altematives determined by URS/MAS From URS 1/11/2010 and GIS files <br /> 1/192011 and 41712011 Hamilton 0 0 100 30 130 <br /> Feeder bus system Based on MAB POF file dated 11/24/2010 and 20 min peak;40 min off-peak <br /> 2/52011 Fridav Center 0 0 30 60 90 <br /> Guideway frequency 10 min peak;20 min off-peak Woodmont 10 0 100 100 210 <br /> Bus consolidations Leigh Village 190 10 300 180 600 <br /> Delete whole competing routes CHT FCX,CHT HUX,CHT S,CHT V,CHT BRT-5140 to UNC,CHT Base 4 Laurel Hills,DATA L5 <br /> Mt Moraih-NC,DATA 10-8 NewHopeCmn-DrhmTech,DATA 8-10 NewHopeCmn-DrhmTech <br /> Gateway 10 0 40 440 490 <br /> Delete a portion ofcompeting TT500 WB,TT Chapel Hill-RTP-102-403,TT ChapelHill-RTP-412.413,DCHC B11,and TT <br /> services Budington-Duke <br /> Patterson Place 0 0 180 0 180 <br /> Walk access 0.5 miles(short walk 0.25 miles,long walk 0.25-0.5 miles) Garrett 0 0 10 10 20 <br /> Drive access Maximum drive 15-40 min,depending on P&R lot function(i.e.,end-of4ine;mid4ine,etc-) MLK 10 0 180 80 250 <br /> Base network 2035 LRTP(TRM V4)with three rail Imes removed(UNC-TTC,Selma-Wake Forest,Apex-Cary) <br /> South Square a 10 0 190 30 230 <br /> Average Weekday Ridership <br /> FORECASTS Estimate With BRT Preference L.aSatle 0 0 190 90 290 <br /> Year 2035 4,600 Duke Medical Center 0 0 270 50 320 <br /> by Trip Purpose Work(Home-Based Work) 55% Ninth 10 0 140 80 230 <br /> Shopping(Home-Based Shopping) 5% Buchanan 0 10 80 1 10 100 <br /> School(Home-Based School) 1% Durham Station 10 0 100 160 270 <br /> Other(Home-Based Other) 9% Ditlards 0 0 90 10 100 <br /> Non-Home-Based Trips 25% Allston 80 10 70 120 280 <br /> College Home-Based University) 5% TOTAL 340 30 2260 020 4,650 <br /> Notes: <br /> 1.As typical for similar regional models,the TRM does not account for some transit system characteristics for rail,such as reliabiliy, <br /> comfort,and safety,which are so-called non-inducted attributes.An additional rail-specific constant,equivalent to 15 minutes in travel time, <br /> was added in the TRTP model.This addition,however,is subject to the FTXs approval. <br /> 2.Further analyses are being conducted in the drive access to rail,stacon activities,and ridership by demographic strata.Additional <br /> adjustments are anticipated. <br /> 3.A dialog is continuing with the FTA on testing and improving the models calibration and validation for the base year.Any changes,as a <br /> result of this consultation,will be incorporated in the 2035 forecasting,affecting the ridership forecasts. <br /> 4.Rounding was used and may lead to discrepancy in totals. <br /> S.The ridership represents the BRT line only,and those buses running on the BRT alignment total a ridership of 19,600, <br /> compared with a total ridership of 6,700 for those routes(not running on the fixed guideway alignment)in AR3.Of the total IS,600 . <br /> I <br /> eeder bus ridership,approximaWy 11,700 would use the BRT guideway. <br /> Durham-Orange County Corridor Alternatives Analysis i July_2011 A D-8 <br /> N <br /> CJ7 <br />