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Ridership Summaries and Station to Station Ridership Forecasts <br /> Table D-2 Summary of Ridership Forecasts—2035(continued)BRT High <br /> i <br /> Durham-Orange County BRT <br /> UNC Hospitals to Alston Ave A3 via Woodmont(C2)and South Square a D3 BRT <br /> BOARDINGS <br /> by Stations <br /> and Mode of PnR KnR Walk Bus <br /> ASSUMPTIONS Element Setting Notes Access Stations Access Access Access Transfers Total <br /> Non-included attributes for rail +15 min Subject to FTA approval UNC Hospitals South 0 0 50 690 740 <br /> Average speed 26.7 mph Mason Farm 10 0 220 30 260 <br /> Alignments and stations "Modeling run altematives determined by From URS 1111/2010 and GIS files <br /> URS/MAB from MAE 1212112010,1/1912011 Hamilton 0 0 110 60 170 <br /> Feeder bus system Based on MA13 PDF file dated 11/242010 20 min peak;40 min o&peak <br /> and2/52011 Friday Center 0 0 30 1 40 70 <br /> Guideway frequency 10 min peak;20 min off-peak Woodmont 10 0 110 130 250 <br /> Bus consolidations Lei h Villa a 240 10 350 230 830 <br /> Delete whole competing routes CHT FCX.CHT HUX,CHT S,CHT V,CHT BRT-5140 to UNC,CHT Base 4 Laurel <br /> Hills,DATA L5 Mt Moraih-NC,DATA 10.8 NewHopeCmn-DrhmTech,DATA 8-10 <br /> NewHopeCmn-DmmTech <br /> Gateway 10 0 120 450 580 <br /> Delete a portion ofcompeting services TT500 WS,TT ChapalHill-RTP-402-403.TT ChapeiH&RTP-412.413,DCHC 871,and <br /> TT Burlington-Duke Patterson Place 0 0 210 10 220 <br /> Walk access 0.5 miles(short walk 0.25 miles,long walk 0.25-0.5 miles) MLK 10 0 200 110 320 <br /> Drive access Maximum drive 15-40 min,depending on P&R lot function(i.e.,end-of-line;mid-line, <br /> etc.) South Square a 10 0 240 40 290 <br /> Base network 2035 LRTP(TRM V4)with three rail lines removed(UNC-TTC,Selma-Wake Forest, <br /> ApeX-Cary) LaSalle 0 0 240 110 350 <br /> FORECASTS Average Weekday Ridership Estimate With BRT Preference Duke Medical Center 0 0 330 60 390 <br /> Year 2035 5,700 Ninth 10 11 0 170 100 280 <br /> by Trip Purpose Work(Home-Based Work) 57% Buchanan 0 0 100 10 110 <br /> Shopping(Hom"ased Shopping) 4% Durham Station 10 0 130 200 340 <br /> School(Home-Based School) 1% Dillard 0 0 120 20 140 <br /> Other(Home-Based Other) 8% Alston 100 10 80 150 340 <br /> Non-Home-Based Trips 24% <br /> College Home-Based University) 6% TOTAL 410 20 2,810 2440 5.63D <br /> Notes: <br /> 1.As typical for similar regional models,the TRM does not account for some transit system characteristics for rail,such as <br /> reliability,comfort,and safety,which are so-called non-included attributes.An additional ra"pecific constant,equivalent to 15 <br /> minutes in travel time,was added in the TRTP model.This addition,however,is subject to the FTA's approval. <br /> 2. Further analyses are being conducted in the drive access to rail,station activities,and ridership by demographic strata. <br /> Additional adjustments are anticipated. <br /> 3.A dialog is continuing with the FTA on testing and improving the model's calibration and validation for the base year.Any <br /> changes,as a result of this consultation,will be incorporated in the 2035 forecasting,affecting the ridership forecasts. <br /> 4.Rounding was used and may lead to discrepancy in totals. <br /> S.The ridership represents the BRT line only,and those buses running on the BRT alignment total a ridership of 20,200, <br /> compared with a total ridership of 6,700 for those routes(not running on the fixed guideway alignment)in AR3.Of the <br /> total 20,200 feeder bus ridership,approximately 11,900 would use the BRT guideway. <br /> Durham-Orange County Corridor Alternatives Analysis l July 20111 D-7 <br />