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Mo(A w.Y4 boo <br /> Ridership Summaries and Station to Station Ridership Forecasts <br /> Table D-2 Summary of Ridership Forecasts—2035 <br /> Durham-Orange County LRT <br /> UNC Hos itais zo Alston Ave Al via Meadow+mont C1 and South S are b D7 <br /> BOARDINGS <br /> by Station and <br /> Mode of PnR KnR Walk Bus <br /> ASSUMPTIONS Element Setting Notes Access Stations Access Access Access Transfers Tout <br /> Nor>included attributes for rail +15 min Subject to FTA approval UNC Hospitals 0 0 630 1,540 Z170 <br /> Average speed 30 mph URS 1/05/2011 Mason Farm 0 0 340 60 400 <br /> Alignments and stations "modeling run alternatives determined by URS/ From URS 1/11/2010 and GIS files <br /> MAB from MAB 1221/2010 Hamilton 0 0 220 90 310 <br /> Feeder bus system Based on MAB PDF file dated 11/242010 20 min peak;40 min off-peak Friday Center 0 10 70 400 480 <br /> Guideway frequency 10 min peak,20 min off-peak Meadowmont 0 0 110 40 150 <br /> Bus consolidations Leigh Village 590 20 450 390 1450 <br /> Delete whole competing routes CHT FCX,CHT HUX,CHT S.CHT V,CHT BRT-5140 to UNC,CHT Base 4 Laurel Hills,DATA 1_5 <br /> Mt Moraih-NC,DATA 10-8 NewHopeCmn-DrhmTech,DATA 8-10 NewHopeCmri-OrhmTeeh <br /> Gateway 40 0 270 900 1,210 <br /> Delete a potion ofcompeting services TT500 WB,TT ChapelHill-RTP-402-403,TT ChapeiHill-RTP-412-113,DCHC B11,and TT <br /> Burlington-Duke Patterson Place 0 0 1 510 0 510 <br /> Walk access 0.5 miles(short walk 0.25 miles,long walk 0.25-0.5 miles) MILK 10 0 270 280 s60 <br /> Drive access Maximum drive 15-40 min,depending on P&R lot function(i.e.,end-of4ine;mid-line,etc.) South Square 6 io 0 610 240 a60 <br /> Base network 2035 LRTP(rRM V4)with three rail lines removed(UNC-TTC,Selma-Wake Forest,Apex-Cary) <br /> LaSalle 0 0 490 200 690 <br /> Average Weekday Ridership <br /> FORECASTS Estimate With LRT Preference Without LRT Preference See Note 1 Duke Medical Center o 0 810 130 940 <br /> Year2035 11,800 8.300 Ninth 40 1 0 1 280 110 430 <br /> by Trip Purpose Work(Home-Based Work) 55% 53% Buchanan 0 10 130 10 150 <br /> Shopping(Home-Based Shopping) 4% 5% Durham Station 10 0 240 370 620 <br /> School(Home-Based School) 1% 1% Dillard 0 0 190 60 250 <br /> Other(Home-Based Other) 8% 10% Alston 350 20 120 ISO 650 <br /> Non-Home-Based Trips 23% 24% <br /> College Home-Based University) 9% 8% TOTAL 1,050 6o 5.740 4.980 11.830 <br /> Notes: 1.Without accounting for rail's non-included attributes. <br /> 2.As typical for similar regional models,the TRM does not account for some transit system characteristics for rag.such as reliability,comfort, <br /> and safety,which are so-called non-included attributes.An additional rag-specific constant,equivalent to 15 minutes in travel time,was added <br /> in the TRTP model.This addition,however,is subject to the FTA's approval. <br /> 3.Further analyses are being conducted in the drive access to rail,station activities,and ridership by demographic strata.Additional <br /> adjustments are anticipated. <br /> 4.A dialog is continuing with the FTA on testing and improving the model's calibration and validation for the base year.Any changes,as a <br /> result of this consultation,will be incorporated in the 2035 forecasting,affecting the ridership forecasts. . <br /> S.Rounding was used and may lead to discrepancy in totals. <br /> Durham-Orange County Corridor Alternatives Analysis l July 20111 D-3 <br /> N <br /> W <br />