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00217 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> QUARTERLY PUBLIC HEARING AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: February 25, 2002 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. <br /> SUBJECT: Population and demographic update and buildout projections using GIS <br /> DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) Yes <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> Orange County's Comprehensive Plan Process Craig N. Benedict, ext. 2592 <br /> • Current Population Study <br /> • Population Projections <br /> • Buildout Scenarios TELEPHONE NUMBERS: <br /> Hillsborough 732-8181 <br /> Chapel Hill 968-4501 <br /> Durham 688-7331 <br /> Mebane (336)227-2031 <br /> PURPOSE: The county planning department will report its findings on population and <br /> demographics to the Board of County Commissioners. This presentation will be made in three <br /> parts: <br /> I. Population changes derived from 2000 census data <br /> A. Orange County changes by ten-year periods, 1980-2000 <br /> B. Orange County population baseline for 2000 <br /> II. Population and housing linear projections through 2020 <br /> A. Orange County projection by ten-year period from 1980-2020 using percentage growth <br /> method <br /> B. Orange County projection to 2040 using percentage growth method <br /> III. Three different buildout scenarios and historical model of total population and dwelling units <br /> based on various land use policy approaches to growth <br /> A. Historical densities <br /> B. Growth scenario I — maximum market rate growth model using existing land use densities <br /> C. Growth scenario II — moderate growth model <br /> D. Growth scenario III — restricted growth model <br /> BACKGROUND: The county planning department is analyzing existing demographic components <br /> and proposed conditions based on land use to develop a new comprehensive plan. As part of the <br /> research process, a study of population and demographics has been performed with scenarios that <br /> illustrate potential growth existing and possible patterns that can be guided through master land <br /> use planning and density management. The 'GOOD' planning model was considered in the <br /> analysis. <br /> FINANCIAL IMPACT: None. <br /> RECOMMENDATION(S): Receive as information make comment. <br />