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Executive Summary <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2010-11 School Year -Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [ (n) ]indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the <br />ro'ection was hi h com aced to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2010-11 Membership <br /> Actua12010 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 <br /> Membershi <br />Elemen 3285 3269 16 3245 40 3385 100 3234 51 3254 31 <br />Middle 1698 1682 16 1697 1 1689 9 1679 19 1711 13 <br />Hi 2222 2138 84 2183 39 2237 15 2208 14 2236 14 <br />D. Student Growth Rate ............................................(Change)..........Pg. 38 <br /> Avera a Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro <br />School District Orange County <br />School District <br /> 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2006-07 2007-OS 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 <br />Elementa 2.03% 1.85% 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.49% 1.84% 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% <br />Middle 2.35% 2.58% 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.42% 1.78% 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% <br />Hi h 2.04% 2.31% 2.21% 1.8% 1.57% 0.98% 1.49% 1.0% 1.38% 1.59% <br />E. Student /Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 41 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School District <br />A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 101%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a lesser rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Due partially to reduced class size capacities going into effect in 2008 with the opening <br />of Morris Grove Elementary, the projections are showing a need for Elementary School <br />#11 in 2013-14 by a projected overcapacity of 51 students. <br />Middle School District <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is 95.8%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a lesser rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2018-19. <br />High School District <br />A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard (current LOS is 93.9%). <br />ii <br />