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Section II <br />change has varied from a high of 199 students to last year's loss of 24 students. Actual real <br />estate market conditions can suppress historical and mathematical trends, which is likely the case <br />in all three school levels within the school system. This year's projections show that additional <br />capacity is not needed in the 10-year projection time frame, whereas last year's projections <br />showed a need in the 2019-20. Additional High School capacity is expected to be achieved by <br />expanding Carrboro High School from 800 students to 1,200 students, as was included in the <br />construction plans for the high school. <br />Orange County School District <br />Elementary <br />The previous year (2009-10) projections for November 2010 at this level were underestimated by <br />31 students. The actual membership increased by 74 students. Over the previous nine years, this <br />level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from -185 to +8 to +44 to +71 to -10 to <br />+66 to +86 to +7, +46, and +74 students a year. This created a historical base of negative growth <br />which was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth <br />projections. In the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to <br />new residential development than in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District, which has a <br />sizeable number of new families in older, regentrified housing stock. Therefore, development <br />activity should be monitored off-line as a harbinger to student growth on a more equal level to <br />historically based mathematical models. The need for an additional Elementary School is not <br />anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable <br />residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. <br />In 2007, State Statutes were amended so that effective the 2009-2010 school year, children <br />entering kindergarten must be five years old by August 31st of the year starting school, versus <br />the previous statewide policy date of October 16th. This policy change resulted in a 45 week <br />enrollment period as opposed to the typical 52 week enrollment period for the 2009-10 school <br />year. This year there was the typical 52 week enrollment period, which resulted in a significant <br />increase in kindergarten enrollment over 2009-10. <br />31 <br />