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N <br />O <br />STUDENT MEMBERSIiIP PROJECTIONS <br />PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTfON I CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS <br />Taschler Linear (OCS 8 <br />CHCCS) Mathemagcal formula; straight gne projection Y7R"b)`x)+b <br />y=projeded poptrlatian; c=historical annual chartge; b=base year; xe projection years Historical growth is refledad in projected growth <br /> BYM+(gYI+S(n})eEYM EYM`%SLeEYM/SL gazeyeargrowtltreflectsl0-yearavemge; <br /> <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />lyiathematical linear vrfh percent variation among sdwol BYM= base year Znd month membership: BYl=yearstudaM membership increment <br />increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> <br />(OCS} <br />levels; reflects progressing waves of membership base; EYM=ensukrg y~r membership; n=projection year, %SL-% ottotal <br />increases in housing growth; reflects butldout <br /> membership per school level (i.e. elementary, middle, high); EYM/SL=ensuing year wnstreints <br /> member by school ~vel <br /> BYM + (BYI -15(n)) a EYM EYM `%SL = EYM/SL Base year growdt reflects i ayear average; <br />OCP Lirear Wave Mathematical linear with pemont vadation among school BYM=base year 2nd momth membership; BYI-yearstudent membership irtaement decrease In BYI of 15 until sdteol year 2074?A1 t <br />CHCC <br />( S) levels; regects <br />progressing waves of membership base; EYM=ensuing year membership; n=projrrclion year, 965E=%of total <br />reflects decreases in housing gmtNh; reflects <br /> membership persr#aod level (Lo. aMmeratary, middle, high); EY6glSL=ensuing yenr buikiout ranstreiatta <br /> member by school lever <br /> Knekin+(ka.t°0.01) <br /> MaNematiral formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancementrale over the previous 3 years for each a e(E tin f g„t)13 Assumes a 19'o annual growth rate for the <br />3-Year Cohort (OCS & grade level end then uses each rate to calculatt n.3 kindergarten grade le+rel; assumes thesema <br />CHCCS) projected membership by school level; em assumed b=g o-t (a) percentage of afudents in cant grade level <br /> kindergarten tnembersttip u based an bath records K=kindergarten membership; n~iven ached year; G'-given grade's 9r~uate 1n the next level each year <br /> andlor historical growth rates mambarship(otherrhan kindergarten); g=Previous grade's membersh~a: a~verege <br /> advancement rate; b=projected membership <br /> <br /> Mathematcel formula that wmputes the average r=t <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a ~E G„ 1 g,,.t) ! 5 Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the <br />5 year Cohort (OCS & grade Ievei and than uses each rate to calculate n=5 kinder~rtem grade lavefl assumes the same <br />CHCCS) projected membership by school level; an assumed beg o-t (a) percentage dstudents in each grade level <br /> kindargeatart membership b based on bidlr retards Kindergarten membership; n=given school year, G=ggivan grade's gradual to the next level each year <br /> andlor historical growth rates membership(othx Ihen kindergaMn); g= prevous grade's mear&ership; a=average <br /> advancement rate; 6=pmjeeted membership <br /> <br /> Mathematics! formula that imputes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rata over the previous t0 y«tra for each a =(E Ga f g„ t) ! 10 Assumes a 1 % annual growth reta for the <br />10 year Cohort {OGS & grade level and then uses each rata to ca~ulate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) projected membership by school level; an assumed beg ,M (a) percerttege of students in eoch grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on baath rewrds K=kindergarten membership; n=given school year, G=~gHen grade's graduate to the nett level eadt year <br /> andlor historical growth rates rnembarship(othartban kirtdergaden}; ge previous grade's membership; a=averege <br /> advartcement rete; b=T,rojeeted membership <br />n <br />O <br />ti <br />a <br />>y <br />n <br />fD <br />i--a <br />