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CHCCS Student Projections <br />3rd --T 2nd month November 15, 2002 nwnbmhip <br />Elamantary <br />Compiled by : Orange County Budget Office <br />01/29/03 <br />School Year 2000 -01 2001 -02 <br />002 -03 <br />OWN <br />2004118 2008.08 <br />2006 -07 <br />2007 -08 <br />12005-UV <br />Ylltib -iU "'" <br />[UtiO- 9'" <br />2v5ti -i'c" <br />"cvii•iv' <br />svia•ni <br />Actual 4 444 <br />Tischler <br />OC Planning <br />10 Year Growth <br />5 Year Growth <br />3 Year Growth <br />evel of Service 4.302 <br />W-100%1 <br />105% Level of Service 1 4,6171 <br />4 474 <br />4 302 <br />4,6171 <br />4,551 <br />4,3021 <br />4.5171 <br />4 714 <br />4 750 <br />4 726 <br />4 799 <br />4 736 <br />4 4 <br />4,9219 <br />5,1611 <br />4 877 6 040 <br />4 913 5 070 <br />4 690 5 018 <br />S 034 5 218 <br />4 913 5 060 <br />4 925 b 083 <br />4,921 4.921 <br />5.157 5,167 <br />5 203 <br />5 221 <br />5143 <br />6 413 <br />6 193 <br />23 <br />5 521 <br />5,797 <br />5 368 <br />5 387 <br />5 309 <br />5 621 <br />5,362 <br />405 <br />19t, 5,521 <br />797 <br />8 b29 <br />5 b07 <br />5 382 <br />5 677 <br />5.418 <br />488 <br />5,521 <br />1 5.7971. <br />5 892 <br />6855 <br />8 018 <br />8181 <br />8344 <br />5 818 5 726 -5,80-5 5 818 <br />5 415 5 489 5 524 6 579 <br />5 734 8 792 5 849 5 908 <br />5.470 6.625 5 580 6.636 <br />5.6651 5,673, 5 781 844 <br />1 5,621 5.621 b 521 5 521 <br />6,797 6,797 579 5 797 <br />8 001 <br />6 835 <br />5 967 <br />5 682 <br />5 928 <br />5 521 <br />5 797 <br />Actual - % Level of Service 103.3% <br />race - % Level of service <br />U <br />104.0% <br />. <br />105.8% <br />v . . <br />t41% <br />_. <br />100.1%1 103.31% .. _ 8.. <br />mgik �� <br />97.9 9.9. 't . 8..% . <br />.9.4.8% gp � <br />J <br />2% <br />02..8.% 104.4% 7 <br />}10.1d3.t. .1. <br />{4 t�1f "0 tfi <br />Uleldin Elernadary 09 opens In fall 2003 with addItIMI 619 JEWtrf #10 opens m 11.112006 with 600 addM.W seats <br />School Year <br />2000 -01 <br />2001 -02 12 002113 <br />2003 -04 2004-05 2006-06 <br />2006-07 <br />2007 -08 <br />2008 -09 <br />2009.10 <br />2010 -11 <br />2011 -12 <br />2012 -13 <br />201344 <br />Actual <br />'nschier <br />OC tannin <br />10 Year Growth <br />6 Year Growth <br />PGrowth <br />e -100% Level of Service <br />Level of Service <br />2 326 <br />2108 <br />2.2561 <br />2,540 2 808 <br />2 840 2 840 <br />3.039 3 039 <br />2 701 2 796 1 <br />2 705 2774 <br />2 673 2 85H <br />2 675 2 874 <br />2 883 2 883 <br />2 840 2 840 <br />3,039 3,0391 <br />2,8_ <br />2,8 <br />2 714 <br />2 757 <br />2 719 <br />2 840 <br />3,0391 <br />2 982 <br />2 899 <br />2 813 <br />2 894 <br />2 825 <br />2 840 <br />3,0391 <br />3 076 <br />2 956 <br />2 883 <br />2 991 <br />1868 <br />2 840 <br />3,0391 <br />3188 <br />3 282 <br />3 365 <br />3448 <br />3542 <br />3 835 <br />3 007 <br />2 985 <br />3194 <br />3 033 <br />2 840 <br />3,039 <br />3 079 <br />3101 <br />3 382 <br />3158 <br />2 840 <br />3,039 <br />3152 <br />3 283 <br />3 591 <br />3 324 <br />2 840 <br />3,0391 <br />3 226 3 288 <br />3 295 3 328 <br />3 827 3 864 <br />3 357 3 391 <br />2 <br />3,0391 3 039 <br />3 372 <br />3 382 <br />3 700 <br />3 425 <br />3 039 <br />Actual - % Level of Service 110.3% 69.4% <br />Avera e - % Level of Service L pp 94.6% 95.5%1 98.0%1 101.5%1 104.0%1 <br />yy �g y�pfr...inh 1[r t �ca7Y T_ .. t rA, turf i- n , }�'� .. 'y S SJ ✓.4 a i:,G'si�i" -r1 <br />PRO <br />„ti�ua �(aiYa9 aPV Wrii ;E rrSa i § ay"� i kE `-iF N' P5 t�»7 ...�, <br />..... .}mil+ v. .:� <br />108.4%1 <br />112.6%1 <br />117.5%1 <br />119A%j 1213% 123 2% <br />3 .- jS.Fn y^ .: <br />?! ���q9V' 1 <br />9n��k <br />7 "48/e <br />.:'S{ g4� S- .i5��'r�.t+1�} =5. <br />,za�;.,?` <br />$ <br />.. bfil..%.. <br />tai It is important to note that this reflects the November 16, 2002 date of membership as outlined in by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance. It does not Include <br />CHCCS students attending the Hospital School. <br />rll The Tlschler Model provides for the "Linear Method" of projections for both CHCCS and OCS. Original projections used In prior years projection models included the "Linear <br />Extrapolation Method" for CHCCS. <br />tar Annual arowth rate calculated <br />for veers 2000 -01 through 2002 -03 and <br />w As the 's (Town or School District) designated member of the Orange County Planning and School Technical Advisory Committee ( OCPSTAC) I, <br />certify that the Student Membership Projections and Student Generation Rates identified in the chart above are the ones that the OCPSTAC has <br />discussed and agreed upon to be the official projections that will be used to compile Orange County's 2003 -13 Capital Investment Plan (CIP) for the Chapel Hill- Carrboro City Schools and the Orange County <br />O � <br />O <br />IQ <br />tD <br />b <br />n <br />N <br />