Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
Projected Trends <br />This section takes a look at the next 30 years and <br />suggests where we are likely to be headed given <br />current trends and policies. <br />Projected Population & Housing Growth <br />An estimated 65,850 persons are projected to be <br />added to the current population by 2030. The <br />annual population growth rate is projected to be <br />1.45% between 1998 and 2030. In 2030 an <br />estimated 178,740 persons will live in the <br />county. The growth rate (1.45 %) will be <br />considerably slower than the 1960 -1998 growth <br />rate of 2.57%, but the actual number of people <br />added will be almost as many, with 65,850 <br />people added between 1998 and 2030 compared <br />to the population gain of 69,920 people from <br />1960 to 1998. <br />200,000 <br />150,000 <br />100,000 <br />50,000 <br />0 <br />Projected Orange County Population <br />2000 2010 2020 2030 <br />Source: Woods and Poole Economics Inc. <br />A breakdown of housing unit projections by <br />township reveals the following, based on the <br />assumption that distribution patterns for units <br />built from June 1998 to July 2030 will be the <br />same as for units built between April 1990 and <br />June 1998: <br />It is important to note, however, that we are <br />already seeing changes to the previous <br />distribution pattern, particularly with an increase <br />in building activity in and around Hillsborough. <br />11 <br />The projected growth will put pressure on the <br />county's education and transportation systems, <br />as well as on our water and air quality and the <br />integrity of natural areas. <br />Education <br />Based on the expected population growth by the <br />year 2030, school enrollment will increase by: <br />• 6,520 elementary students; <br />• 2,740 middle school students; and <br />• 200 high school students. <br />Based on these projections and continuation of <br />current trends (same ratio of students in public <br />schools, same public school structure and <br />capacity standards) another 10 elementary <br />schools, 4 middle schools and 2 -3 high schools <br />will be needed by 2030, for a total of 16 -17 new <br />schools. <br />Transportation <br />Projections suggest an annual increase in daily <br />vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of 2.34 %. <br />Average VMT is expected to increase from 35 <br />miles per driver per day to 45 by 2030, if past <br />trends continue. <br />Increasing Daily Vehicle Miles in Orange <br />County <br />ITI ITi ITi <br />- :111 11 <br />Total <br />.111 11 <br />Rjral '.. • <br />•r- 0.00 <br />Year <br />Extrapolated from current trends. <br />This increase would be attributable to <br />continuation of current <br />• regional land use patterns; <br />• commuting patterns of county drivers; and <br />• transportation infrastructure provision. <br />