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R <br />Section II <br />decreased precipitously from 214 to 68 to 4, to -52 and then has seen modest increases of +12, <br />+20, +30, +75 and + 11-since 2004. The projections show a need for Middle School #5 in 2016- <br />17, which is three years later than projected last year. <br />High School <br />The previous year (2008) projections for November 2009 for this level were overestimated by 91 <br />students. The actual membership decreased by -24. Over the previous eight (8) years, change <br />has varied from a high of 199 students to this year's loss of 24 students. Actual real estate <br />market conditions can suppress historical and mathematical trends, which is likely the case in all <br />three school levels within the school system. This year's projections indicate a need for <br />additional capacity in 2019-20, which is three years later than the need projected last year. <br />Additional High School capacity is expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School <br />from 800 students to 1,200 students, as was included in the construction plans for the high <br />school. <br />Orange County School District <br />Elementary <br />The previous year (2008) projections for November 2009 at this level were accurate at <br />3211students. The actual membership increased by 46 students. Over the previous eight (8) <br />years, this level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from -185 to +8 to +44 to +71 <br />to -10 to +66 to +86 to +7 and +46 students a year. This created a historical base of negative <br />growth which was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth <br />projections. In the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to <br />new residential development than in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District, which has a <br />sizeable number of new families in older, regentrified housing stock. Therefore, development <br />activity should be monitored off-line as a harbinger to student growth on a more equal level to <br />historically based mathematical models. The need for an additional Elementary School is not <br />anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable <br />31 <br />