Agenda - 05-06-2010 - 7a - Laserfiche WebLink

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O STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIP71pN 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS Tschler Linear (t)CS 6 CHCCS) MMfrematlcal farrrsrk: shaigM line projection tHl~'b)'X)+~ yeprojeded population; o=tttisbripl annual ohenge; b=bese year; x= projection years Htstorreal growth is roflacted in projected growth BYM + (BYI+ 6(nJ} ~ EYM EYM • Y~SL = EYIWSL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear vvWr percent variation among school BYM ~01~ ~ "' membershp, BYlryear student membership inaement %SL=96 oftotal base; EYMesnsuing year membership; n=projection year inasam in BYI of 5 every other year re0ec~ (OCS) bvels; reflects progressing waves ~ rnarreership , ~~ ~ sdroo! bval (.e. elementary, middle, hph); EYNYSL=rnsuingyaar increases 4r houslc rowth; reflects ~ildout g g oonstraufis rrbrrdrer by sctrod bvel BYM + (BYI' i5(n)) = EYM EYM' °k3L = EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10•year average; OCP Linear Wave Mathematical Gnear mth perwnt variation among school BYM= base year 2nd mordh membership: BYl~ear student rtambsrship inaement 9'eS1=96 of fatal base; EYMxnwing year membershp; n-prof action year dscre~e In BYi of 15 ungl srdvwl year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels; eflects progressing waves d membershp~ , membership per adwol bvel (ie, elarw,tary, middle, hiph); EYSNSL~nsuhg year reflects decreases In houakrg growth; rdlects buildout eonstrakrts member by school kve! MMherratlnl fonrvda that composes the average net advancement rata overtha prevlcus 3 years for each a =~E t3„ f g,.~)19 Asaurrros a 1'b annual growth rate for the &Year CohoR (OCS 8 grade level and tlan uses each rate to calculate n~ k'utdergarten grade bveY, assumes the same CHCCS) Projected membershp by school level; an asaraned b=9 ~ (a) percentage of aludems in each grade level kindergarten membership a based on birth records K=kindergarten membership; rr`givan school year; G--given grsdes greduate to ~ need level each year andlor historioal grmtiih rates membership(dher than Idndargarsen); g= pevious grade's membershb; e~ver~e advancement rate; b=projected membership Mathemetlcel tonnrde that eomput~ the average ~1 adverrcemerd rate over the previous 5 years for each a ~E G„ t gw,) f 6 Assumes a 1°.fr annual grrnxth rate toc the 5 year Cohotl (OCS & grede bvN and then uses each rata to calculate rr-ti kindergarten grade bveh, assumes the same CHCCS) projected rnarrbership by school level; an aasurrred b-g ,M (a} percentage of aNdents in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth reoords K~rindergarten membership; n~ivan sdtod year, G'~jiven grades graduate to the ne>d oval each year anrUor hfstodrdl growth rates membarship(otharthan kbrderpersen): g= previous grsde'a membership; eeevsraga advanodront rata; b=projected membership Kn ° k err • (k.t ~ 0.0i) Mathenutid fomada that oomprass the aversga r>=1 advanoenrM tale avsrlM previous 10 years for each a ^(L G„ f g,.~) ! 10 Assumes a 1°,6 annual gmvth rase for the 10 year Cohort (OCS 8 grade level and then uses eactr rase tb calcrdase ns10 kindergarsm grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school lerel• an assumed ~9 Mr (s) ' pereerdage of atudards fn each grade bvel kkdergarten membaaddp lc based on biM rerords K=kndergartan membarshlp; negiven school year, C#~givan grades 9radrade to the need level earn year anNwtuetorieal growth rates memberahip(otherOrar kindmgarten); ge prevous grades membersh4; ems-average edvancarard rate; b-projsdad membership m n o' K ."'S' i--+