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Executive Summary <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2009-10 School Year -Orange County Schools <br />(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compazed to actual membership. A number in parenthesis <br />within the brackets [ (n) ]indicates the projection was low compazed to the actual whereas a number not in pazenthesis indicates the <br />ro'ection was hi h com azed to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2009-10 Membership <br /> Actua12009 2004-OS 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 <br /> Membershi <br />Elemen 3211 3328 [117] 3241 [30] 3223 [12] 3333 [122] 3211 [0] <br />Middle 1665 1647 [ 18 ] 1618 [(47)] 1629 [ (36 ] 1631 [(34)] 1628 [(37 ] <br />Hi h 2217 2137 [(80)] 2139 [ (78) ] 2177 [(40)] 2224 [7] 2210 [(7)] <br />D. Student Growth Rate ............................................(Change)..........Pg. 38 <br /> Avera a Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hi111Carrboro <br />School District Orange County <br />School District <br /> 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 <br />Elementa 1.95% 2.03% 1.85% 1.5% 1.72% 1.60% 1.49% 1.84% 1.16% 1.34% <br />Middle 2.41% 2.35% 2.58% 2.03% 1.93% 1.18% 1.42% 1.78% 1.44% 1.53% <br />Hi h 1.95% 2.04% 2.31% 2.21% 1.8% 0.92% 0.98% 1.49% 1.0% 1.38% <br />E. Student /Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 41 <br />SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br />(based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br />CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br />Elementary School District <br />A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 99.5%). <br />B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the <br />next 10 years. <br />C. Due partially to reduced class size capacities going into effect in 2008 with the opening <br />of Morris Grove Elementary, the projections are showing a need for Elementary School <br />#11 in 2012-13 by a projected overcapacity of 98 students. <br />D. Effective this school year, the kindergarten enrollment date changed from October 16`h to <br />August 31S`. This policy change resulted in a shorter enrollment period this year and a <br />drop in kindergarten enrollment. This issue is addressed more fully on page 30 of the <br />report. <br />Middle School District <br />A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is 95.4%). <br />ii <br />