Agenda - 10-06-2009 - 6c - Laserfiche WebLink

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2 This November 2008 projection showed the need for additional capacity (i.e., Elementary School #11) by 2010-11 by indicating proposed conditions could be over 26 students if projections were consistent (i.e., on-line) with the comparison of actual enrollment in November 2009 with projected enrollment from the prior year. This comparison (noted in column 2 above), although not with the official November 15, 2009, show 20t" day enrollment at this school level of 5,225 students versus 5,406 which was projected, a decease of 181 students below projections. Again, although this number is not official, this is an appreciable decrease below the projection that mathematically would make ensuing year student projections and complementary capacity needs more moderate. In other words, the hypothetical need for a new school in 2010-11 would likely move to later years. New projections will be part of the 2010 SAPFO TAC Report (based on November 2009 enrollment). The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) system does not run on projections of future years. The system is based on actual enrollment in current year versus actual capacity and/or programmed capacity. In this manner, each year the system is reset to show the actual remaining capacity. New growth is certified against remaining capacity, so if the 20t" day numbers were used, 281 student stations would be available which could equate to possible approval of 1,068 single family homes. (281 x 1 /.263 = 1, 068) Note: .263 students generated for elementary schools per single-family detached, 2007 The new student generation rates are more realistic and would provide a better gauge of the student impact of new growth. Higher student generation rates equate to less potential growth approvals. Class Size In 2008-09, upon the opening of Morris Grove Elementary, the SAPFO ordinance changed the elementary capacity of schools based on prior state legislation to reduce class size from 1:23 to 1:21 for K-3 classes. SAPFO, as reported by the prior County Attorney, does not necessarily have to conform to DPI rules, nonetheless these class size standards were put into effect. The impacts of this change were realized in both school districts. However, in the Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District, the opening of Elementary School #10 in 2008-09 did not create 585 new student capacity school level wide but only 323 because class size reductions decrease school capacity. The impact of implementing `mandated' new class size ratios therein relates to a loss in school level capacity of 262 seats or the equivalent of 45% of a new school or in capital cost terms roughly $14 million. This implementation also made the new capacity added by Elementary School #10 not go as far before the projections showed the need for Elementary School #11. Depending on annual growth rates of elementary students (100 per year estimated), new schools typically would be needed after 4-5 years instead of the two-year CIP turnaround created by implementing class size. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Project cost estimate is between $31-32 million closer to $32 million including engineering. Lottery funds totaling $974,000 are already in place toward funding engineering costs. Using $31 million as the financing amount, the financial impact would be as follows: