Agenda - 02-22-1999 - d2b - Laserfiche WebLink

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2SO * The regional travel behavior survey (the 1994/1995 Triangle Travel Behavior Survey, performed by the Triangle Transit Authority or TTA) was performed to determine the commuting and other travel preference of persons living in the Triangle Region of North Carolina (Wake, Durham and Orange Counties). This survey indicated that, in 1995, 1.4% of all trips made across the Triangle are made using a bicycle. Any questions about the survey should be directed to Joe Huegy, TTA Senior Transportation Planner, at 406 -1710. Some calculations or inferences have been made using the above surveys to demonstrate the local nature of bicycle trip making propensity and are provided below: ✓ In 1995 there were 37,397 persons employed within Orange County. It is assumed that each of these persons made a trip to work and a trip from work for a total of 74,794 work trips from an employment site located in Orange County. This number does not include person trips for persons that live in Orange County but commute to jobs outside of the county (which could possibly be an additional 37,206 work trips as estimated by the Triangle Regional Modeling Team for the year 1995 using an unvalidated computer simulation model). If the local major employer (UNC) factor of 3.7% is applied to total "in- county" employment trips of 74,794, then there would be approximately 2,767 bike commute trips for the whole county plus those bikers who commute to jobs out of the county by bicycle. Add the 2,767 possible bike employee commuters to the already existing UNC student commuter trips (2,882 * 2 = 5,764) and the estimated total possible county bike transportation trips per day is 8,531. => If the triangle -wide (TTA) average of 1.4% (i.e., the bicycling portion of all trips) is applied to the total possible number of employee commute trips (74,794) there would only be a possible 1,047 bicycle trips for county employees. Add the UNC student commuters (5,764) to 1,047 and you have an estimated total possible county bike transportation trips per day of 6,811. => And finally, if the national average of 0.7% (i.e., the bicycling portion of all trips) is applied to the total possible number of employee commute trips (74,794) there would only be a possible 523 bicycle trips for county employees. Add the UNC student commuters (5,764) to 523 and you have an estimated total possible county bike transportation trips per day of 6,287. As demonstrated above, the current methods of inferring cycling trips from major employer and regional surveys is not as accurate as counting motor vehicle trips with a rubber hose across the road! Additional survey work is needed to provide numbers of cyclists by route and also to identify potential major employers that would have cyclists. In addition to a lack of travel survey data for estimating current bicycle usage, there is currently no valid method for predicting future bicycle commuting numbers. However, according the Bicycle News Agency, in their February 8th, 1998 webpage posting; "US Cycling Doubles - While Britain seemingly struggles to double cycle usage by 2002, the USA is celebrating news that the number of cycle commuters is up from 3.3 million in 1990 to 7.9 million now. A Bicycling Magazine survey is said to have found that if conditions improve, 29.9 million would bike - commute." This would constitute a 359% increase in bicycle commuters. At this time there is nothing to indicate that bicycle commuting will increase by 359% in Orange County in the near future. Nor is there anything at this time that indicates that all those persons who say that they will cycle commute in the future if better facilities are provided will live up to that promise. What is indicated in the future for Orange County automobile commuters is more frequent and longer periods of congestion on the arterial (or main transportation) highways of the county. There is research being performed at this time at the national and Triangle Regional levels to develop methods to forecast bicycle commute trips. •