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be produced during the next 30 years. The <br />total tonnage estimates translates to a per <br />person per day waste total of 1.9 to 3 <br />pounds. <br />If reduction or diversion strategies are <br />implemented,* waste generated in the next <br />30 years would require a landfill .9 times <br />the size of the Orange Regional Landfill, <br />which has a capacity of 4.75 million cubic <br />yards. If goals are not met then a landfill <br />1.2 times larger than the Orange Regional <br />Landfill would be needed. <br />Transportation <br />Extrapolation of the 10 year trend in daily <br />vehicle miles traveled (VMT) between 1987- <br />1997, reveals that Orange County daily <br />VMT will increase from 3,113,800 in 1997 to <br />7,867,650 in 2030.. This translates to an <br />increase in daily Orange County VMT from <br />35 miles per driver per day in 1997 to 45 <br />miles per driver per day, by 2030. <br />10 <br />Low gas prices provide an incentive for <br />drivers to make multiple, short trips that <br />they would not ordinarily make, but do so <br />given the reduced fuel costs. In general <br />larger distances between residential <br />development and commercial/ office space <br />increases auto dependency. As Orange <br />County residents live further and further <br />from shopping and work they will rely on <br />automobiles for transportation, in the. <br />absence of other travel choices. One result <br />of the spatial mismatch between residential <br />and commercial/ office development, is that <br />drivers are encouraged to drive for longer <br />distances with fewer passengers. <br />The current transportation infrastructure <br />provides few options, other than driving, <br />for persons who commute long distances <br />(>15 miles from point of origin). Chapel <br />Hill Transit provides and will continue to <br />service the needs of Chapel M and' <br />Ca-rrboro residents and UNC students <br />within these towns. The <br />Figure 10: Projected Orange County VMT, 1998- <br />2030 <br />8000 <br />7000 <br />6000 <br />95000 <br />W <br />004000 <br />WOO <br />-2000 <br />1011111 <br />N CR a N a <br />These projected increases in daily VMT will <br />occur given population increase and <br />continuation of: 1) low gas prices; 2) <br />regional land use patterns; 3) the <br />commuting patterns of county drivers and <br />4) transportation infrastructure provision. <br />— Rural <br />--- Urban <br />Total <br />5 <br />Triangle Transit Authority <br />provides limited bus service <br />between Chapel Hill, <br />Raleigh and Durham. TTA <br />is conducting preliminary <br />analysis for a regional rail <br />station to be developed in <br />Chapel Hill. Bicycle <br />commuting is and will <br />continue to be a viable <br />alternative for in-town <br />commuting. Bicycle <br />commuting between towns <br />and/or suburbs will be <br />a a "I difficult unless current <br />thoroughfares are equipped <br />with proper measures to <br />facilitate bicycle traffic. <br />Diversification of the County's <br />transportation network will be needed to <br />serve seniors, the disabled and low income <br />residents whose physical, and or economic <br />limitations prevent them from driving. <br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999 <br />