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In terms of funding, Orange County and <br />Carrboro have accumulated $425,000 and <br />$473,000 respectively through "payments - <br />in -lieu" through the development process. <br />Questions have been raised, however, <br />whether the current system of land <br />acquisition is sufficient to meet needs. Part <br />of the problem is that, some recreational <br />facilities are developed privately, and are <br />not open to the public. Also, small parcels <br />of land that are donated for public use often <br />end up being of use neither to the public <br />nor to the development itself, since their <br />size or location makes them difficult to use. <br />Updates to this approach would be needed <br />to provide any substantial funding <br />mechanism for future needs. <br />Schools <br />Based on the expected population growth <br />by the year 2030, school enrollment will <br />increase by: <br />® 6,520 elementary students; <br />® 2,740 middle school students; <br />® 2,800 high school students. <br />If current trends hold true (same ratio of <br />students in public schools, same public <br />school structure, continuation of current <br />trends, student population and capacity <br />standards), the above increase in <br />enrollment would translate into the <br />following new schools needed by 2030. <br />Figure 9: Required Schools, 1998 -2030 <br />8 <br />classified into three functional <br />classifications: Well, Disabled, or <br />Institutionalized. As of today the <br />overwhelming majority (79 %) are well, 16% <br />are disabled and 5% are institutionalized. <br />Assuming that these proportions stay the <br />same in the future, it is projected that the <br />majority of tomorrow's senior population <br />will demand preventative, rather than <br />supportive or protective, services. As the <br />name suggests, preventative services <br />prevent the early breakdown of functional <br />capacity, whereas supportive and protective <br />services provide direct care services for the <br />elderly (for a list of services classified under <br />each functional type see Profile pg. 33). <br />Based on current standards 17 care facilities <br />(including adult day care, assisted living <br />facilities and family care homes) will need <br />to be developed. This is particularly critical <br />for seniors living on fixed incomes and/or <br />those that need supportive or protective <br />services. Based on this population increase <br />28,662 sq. feet of new space will need to be <br />devoted for one or multiple senior centers, <br />if current standards are to be maintained. <br />This is equivalent to approximately 2 spaces <br />the size of Chapel Hill Senior Center, 1' <br />space the size of Efland- Cheeks Community <br />Center and 1 space the size of the Northern <br />Orange Community Center. <br />Elementary 10 or 11 $130 - $155 million <br />Middle 14 $74 - $90 million <br />High 2 -3 $68 - $90 million <br />TOTAL ( 16-18 schools 1 $272 - $355 million <br />Note: Current capacity not factored in, but most <br />existing schools are over or near capacity in 1999. <br />Senior Facilities <br />According to the Orange County <br />Department on Aging, the elderly can be <br />Child Services <br />At present there is approximately 1 <br />licensed day care facility in Orange <br />County for every 94 children. Given <br />an additional 6223 children, 66 <br />facilities would need to be built <br />during the next 31 years to provide <br />child care services at the current ratio., <br />In addition to the increased demand for <br />child care services, the issue of affordability <br />will become increasingly important. Data is <br />not available as to the cost of child care in. <br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999 <br />