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that may alter the cost of housing. They are <br />based on the assumption that future <br />increases -in County-wide housing cost will <br />occur at the same annual rate of growth that <br />occurred in the Chapel Hill housing market <br />between 1988 and 1998. The decision to <br />base projections the Chapel Hill market was <br />dictated by the fact that figures <br />documenting the character of the Orange <br />county housing market do not presently <br />exist. <br />Between 1988 and 1998 the price of owner <br />occupied homes in Chapel Hill grew by an <br />annual average of 2.07% . The cost of rental <br />properties grew by a yearly average of <br />3.01%. <br />The average market value, in 2030, for an <br />owner occupied home and rental property <br />is outlined in the following figure. <br />Figure 7: Market Value of Orange County <br />Housing, 1998 and 2030 <br />Housing Type <br />1998 dollars <br />Rental <br />1998 <br />2030 <br />1 bdrm. <br />$497.95 <br />$1285.38 <br />2 bdrm. <br />$603.75 <br />$1558.48 <br />3 bdrm <br />$709.55 <br />$1831.59 <br />4 bdrm <br />$721.05 <br />$1861.27 <br />5 bdrm. <br />$1,121.25 <br />$2894.32 <br />Owned <br />New <br />$265,000 <br />$510.466 <br />Existing <br />$186,000 <br />$358,28 <br />If housing cost, continues to increase at the <br />rates identified above, it will remain cost <br />prohibitive for residents and families <br />earning at or below the mean per capita <br />income to live here. The projected average <br />per capita income for a resident in 2030 will <br />be $41,068 (1998 dollars). This is in contrast <br />to the estimated per capita income in 1998 <br />of $28,223 (1998 dollars). If this resident <br />chose to purchase an existing home for <br />themselves and their family in Orange <br />County in 2030, they would find that they <br />would have to spend approximately 8 times <br />their annual income. To purchase a new <br />home the same resident would have to <br />spend 12.4 times their annual income. US <br />Housing and Urban Development <br />Department guidelines define affordable <br />housing as selling at 2.5 times annual <br />income. Given the cost of a single family <br />home, this resident may consider renting. <br />Applying US HUD guidelines for <br />affordable rental housing (30% of monthly <br />income) a resident earning the average per <br />capita income in 2030, could afford a to rent <br />a property at $1026.59 per month. <br />If present trends continue rental properties <br />will not be that inexpensive. In 2030, rental <br />properties will be rented at 37% to 84% of <br />the average monthly per capita income <br />($3442.31). For single or two person <br />householders, spending more than 30% of <br />their monthly income on housing may be <br />acceptable, given that they do not have <br />other significant expenses (child care, <br />health, college loans, etc.). For households <br />with such additional expenses, particularly <br />those with children, spending more than <br />1/3 of their monthly income is certainly less <br />desirable. <br />Non-Residential Acreage <br />Limited data dictated that projections of <br />future commercial acreage be calculated for <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro, Hillsborough and <br />Mebane/Efland only. Projections were <br />based on the assumption that future <br />commercial land - demand could be <br />projected given knowledge of based on the <br />ratio of current dwelling units to current <br />square feet of commercial space, and future <br />dwelling unit demand. <br />Given this assumption it is projected that <br />approximately 3,077,218 square feet of new <br />commercial/industrial space,, or 1,569 acres <br />will be constructed by 2030. It is important <br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999 <br />