|
The highest annual increases would occur
<br />in Bingham, Little River and Cedar Grove
<br />townships, which could grow by 2.701/o,
<br />2.32% and 1.88%, annually. Some of the
<br />growth within Cheeks, Hillsborough and
<br />Eno townships might be captured inside the
<br />expanded town limits of Mebane,
<br />Hillsborough and Durham.
<br />Residential Acreage
<br />To accommodate projected residential
<br />development, in the same fashion as today,
<br />approximately 47,733 acres of land would
<br />need to be developed in the County during
<br />the next 32 years. A breakdown of acreage
<br />required, is detailed in the figure below.
<br />Notable findings associated with future
<br />land demand include:
<br />♦ 46% of the County would be developed
<br />by 2030.
<br />♦ Within the next 30 years Orange County
<br />would develop 2/3 as much land as has
<br />been developed from the time of
<br />settlement to the present.
<br />o Chapel Hill township would be largely
<br />built-out. Only 3,000 acres will remain
<br />.developable, most of this in the Rural
<br />Buffer.
<br />Figure 6: Required Acreage, 1998-2030
<br />TOTAL 70,135 169,023 47,733
<br />In the above figure, acreage for Cheeks,
<br />Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough townships
<br />include municipal areas inside the
<br />townships. Also, by 2030 Hillsborough's
<br />municipal boundaries could extend into
<br />Eno and Cheeks townships. Durham's
<br />municipal boundaries may extend into Eno
<br />township as well.
<br />It is important to note again that the
<br />amount of land estimated to be developed
<br />was based on past trends. Impending new
<br />development in the Hillsborough area is not
<br />taken into account. The amount of land
<br />estimated to be currently developed was
<br />determined by the following method.
<br />Outside of municipal planning
<br />jurisdictions, developed land is defined as
<br />parcels 10 acres or less having a structure
<br />on them, plus a 10 acre developed envelope
<br />for each parcel Veater than 10 acres having
<br />a structure on it. Within municipal
<br />planning jurisdictions a 2 acre, rather than
<br />10 acre, cutoff was used.
<br />Estimated acres needed for projected
<br />growth were calculated by multiplying the
<br />number of projected dwelling units by the
<br />average lot size for each area. For rural
<br />portions of the County average lot sizes
<br />were calculated using 1987-1994 permit
<br />data for major and minor subdivision
<br />activity. In municipal areas the average lot
<br />size . was provided by town planning
<br />departments.
<br />Housing Cost
<br />Aside from land consumption one of the
<br />more significant impacts, over the next 32
<br />years, of population growth and demand
<br />for housing will be the continued rise in the
<br />cost of housing.
<br />Estimations of future housing cost were
<br />developed based on best available data. It is
<br />important to note that these are provided as
<br />a point of reference. These projections have
<br />not taken into account future land
<br />availability or any policy or market changes
<br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999
<br />Little River
<br />8,162
<br />14,895
<br />3,770
<br />Cedar Grove
<br />11,728
<br />30,333
<br />4,152
<br />Cheeks
<br />7,863
<br />17,790
<br />5,994
<br />Hillsborough
<br />4,483
<br />8,112
<br />3,650
<br />Eno
<br />6,442
<br />10,703
<br />4,738
<br />Bingham
<br />12,037 1
<br />29,239
<br />6,623
<br />Cha el Hill_
<br />19,420 1
<br />21,972
<br />18,806
<br />TOTAL 70,135 169,023 47,733
<br />In the above figure, acreage for Cheeks,
<br />Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough townships
<br />include municipal areas inside the
<br />townships. Also, by 2030 Hillsborough's
<br />municipal boundaries could extend into
<br />Eno and Cheeks townships. Durham's
<br />municipal boundaries may extend into Eno
<br />township as well.
<br />It is important to note again that the
<br />amount of land estimated to be developed
<br />was based on past trends. Impending new
<br />development in the Hillsborough area is not
<br />taken into account. The amount of land
<br />estimated to be currently developed was
<br />determined by the following method.
<br />Outside of municipal planning
<br />jurisdictions, developed land is defined as
<br />parcels 10 acres or less having a structure
<br />on them, plus a 10 acre developed envelope
<br />for each parcel Veater than 10 acres having
<br />a structure on it. Within municipal
<br />planning jurisdictions a 2 acre, rather than
<br />10 acre, cutoff was used.
<br />Estimated acres needed for projected
<br />growth were calculated by multiplying the
<br />number of projected dwelling units by the
<br />average lot size for each area. For rural
<br />portions of the County average lot sizes
<br />were calculated using 1987-1994 permit
<br />data for major and minor subdivision
<br />activity. In municipal areas the average lot
<br />size . was provided by town planning
<br />departments.
<br />Housing Cost
<br />Aside from land consumption one of the
<br />more significant impacts, over the next 32
<br />years, of population growth and demand
<br />for housing will be the continued rise in the
<br />cost of housing.
<br />Estimations of future housing cost were
<br />developed based on best available data. It is
<br />important to note that these are provided as
<br />a point of reference. These projections have
<br />not taken into account future land
<br />availability or any policy or market changes
<br />2030 Baseline Scenario April 1999
<br />
|